028
FXUS61 KBUF 310835
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
435 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will prevail through Saturday with day to day
warming as high pressure drifts across the region today before
making its way slowly to the east coast. Weakening low pressure
will then move into the Ohio Valley late Saturday night and
Sunday, bringing a chance of a showers and a few thunderstorms,
especially across Western NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today will get off to a chilly start, with temperatures in the
mid to upper 30s across the Southern Tier where there may be
some frost in the sheltered valleys.

High pressure will drift from the Ohio Valley in the morning to
the eastern Great Lakes by late in the day. High clouds in the
morning east of Lake Ontario will thin, with abundant sunshine
areawide by afternoon. Temperatures will recover nicely after
the chilly start, with highs in the low 70s for lower elevations
and mid to upper 60s for high terrain.

High pressure centered over Western Pennsylvania will bring
another night with good radiational cooling. Warmer air mass in
place, so it`ll be a bit warmer but it still will be cool with
lows ranging from around 40 across the Southern Tier to the mid
to upper 40s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A fine start to the weekend with a mid level ridge over cresting
over our region. Sunshine to start will soon be followed by an
increase in clouds from the west Saturday night ahead of a shortwave
trough. Greatest lift and deeper moisture will lie across southern
zones, while thinner moisture profiles and farther away from the
shortwave will lead to just low chance PoPs for the North Country.
Instability is marginal, with just a general risk for a few
thunderstorms.

This now weakening shortwave and its associated showers will exit
our region Sunday night. Could be some fog developing in areas where
it rained earlier Sunday. Thicker clouds and slightly cooler airmass
at 850 hPa will make Sunday a good 5 degrees cooler than Saturday
for WNY, while similar highs are expected both days east of Lake
Ontario (where some sunshine is possible Sunday).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid level ridge of high pressure will nose its way across the
eastern Great Lakes region Monday through Wednesday. This will pave
the way for a dry day Monday with still comfortable levels of
humidity. By Tuesday and Wednesday humidity will increase some, and
some weakening to this ridge may allow for a few showers and
thunderstorms to blossom...mainly in the afternoon hours. Coverage
of storms Wednesday could be a little more with additional moisture
advection.

The next shortwave trough arrives Thursday with likely showers and
thunderstorms.

Temperatures will average above normal, especially on Tuesday and
Wednesday with low to mid 80s widespread ahead of the next shortwave
trough.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will slowly build across the region providing
confidence in VFR flight conditions today and tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms, particularly across Western NY.
Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for a shower across the
Southern Tier.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will become west and increase to around 15 knots on Lake
Ontario today, producing a moderate chop on the lake during the
afternoon and evening. Light winds will return Saturday as high
pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NYZ012-019>021-
     085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock