342
FXUS61 KBUF 301754
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
154 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny but cool today...some patchy frost will be possible tonight
well inland from the lakes in the typical colder locales. Warmer
Friday and Saturday but dry. The next chance of showers or
thunderstorms arrives Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some fair weather cu will be found over the area this afternoon.

Otherwise...sunny with light northerly flow of 5 to 15 mph and cool
today.

Tonight...the main concern will be low temps. With largely clear
skies expected temps will fall back into the 40s, and in the colder
spots into the 30s.

Frost potential...

The best shot at seeing frost tonight will be in our typical colder
spots across the Southern Tier. A shortwave clipping our eastern
forecast area (North Country) may bring in enough moisture (high
clouds) to limit this threat. Overall confidence is pretty low but
it would be wise to bring in sensitive plants.

Friday...high pressure will drift into the area providing sun-filled
skies and warming temps. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level ridge axis centered over the eastern Great Lakes Friday
night will advance east towards the Northeast Saturday. Meanwhile,
mid-level closed low over northern Manitoba will allow a shortwave
trough to rotate through the base of the low, passing by to the
northwest of the area Sunday.

With the mid-level ridge axis passing east, the surface high
pressure centered over the Ohio Valley Friday night, will drift
southeast toward the Atlantic coastline by Saturday night. Overall
this will support the dry conditions to persist through the first
half of the weekend.

Saturday night and Sunday, the aforementioned shortwave will have
weakened, though its remnants will sweep across the area. As a
result a weak cold front will slide across the area from west to
east late Saturday night through Sunday supporting a chance of
showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Despite the showers, Sunday
will not be a complete washout as there will be plenty of rain-free
time.

The next upper level ridge will then support high pressure to slide
over the region Sunday night through Monday night supporting the
return of dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next potent upper level trough will slide across the upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday, before becoming
stagnant over the Great Lakes Thursday allowing multiple shortwaves
to round its base. While this pattern will create some uncertainty
in the forecast for the middle and later portions of next week, the
initial introduction of the trough will support a surface low over
northern Quebec to drop a surface cold front across the region
supporting a chance for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.

With the aforementioned shortwaves rounding the base of the trough,
another surface low will track northeast from the Central Plains to
the upper Midwest Wednesday and Thursday. Attendant surface warm and
cold fronts will then slide across the region during this time
introducing the chance for some showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fair weather cu will be present but VFR will continue through this
entire TAF cycle.

Tonight...VFR for all TAF sites. While there will be some fog in the
Southern Tier valleys, a drier airmass will limit its coverage.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers.
Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for a shower across the
Southern Tier.

&&

.MARINE...
Light northerly flow will bring some modest chop to the lakes
today.

Winds will back to westerly later Thursday...and then eventually
become light and variable Friday into the weekend as the surface
high crests over the Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...AR