835
FXUS65 KBYZ 240822
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
222 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday night...

Heavy rain and snow producing system of yesterday has exited
Montana, with just some lingering light rain at Baker this hour.
That rain will end by forecast issuance time. Wet ground should
lead to some patchy fog across a large part of the area, so left
that in through the early to mid morning hours. Flow backing
behind the wave, and this will lead to a mainly dry day. Can not
say entirely dry though, as weak energy slides across. Capes were
limited, but models were producing isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The most
likely location for these will be over western zones and along the
northern tier of counties. Precipitation will be much lighter
compared to yesterday, with around 0.20 inches the max precip
total expected.

A stronger wave moves across the area Saturday afternoon and
night. Capes rise to around 500j/kg but shear looks rather weak.
So looks like a good chance of showers and thundestorms (50-70%)
but no organization to them. Precipitable water values rise to
0.60-0.80 inches, so a better chance of getting brief heavy rain.
NBM probabilities of 0.20 inches was generally 20-40%. GFS was
showing pockets of higher QPF (mainly north of Billings) but
generally not much more than 0.30 inches. Showers will linger into
the overnight hours as they push east, with the possibility of
slightly heavier rain amounts east of Rosebud county, as the cells
tap in higher PWAT totals of 0.80 inches.

High tempeatures will be in the lower to mid 60s today after a
chilly start. Highs on Saturday will be warmer, with maxes in the
mid to upper 60s. TWH

Sunday through Thursday...

Into Sunday, ensembles have weak shortwave troughing continuing to
move through MT bringing an increased chance (30-60%) of precip
and isolated thunderstorms. Chances for a quarter inch of rain
Sunday is best Billings east at around 10-20%. With regards to
mountain snow, only a couple inches or less is likely for Sunday.
Ridging will begin to build in Monday, ushering in warm and dry
conditions for the next few days. Ensembles then depict more
unsettled weather moving in sometime Wednesday, but models are not
in any sort of agreeance on the timing of precip. Conditions look
to remain unsettled through the end of the week. Chances for at
least a quarter inch of rain for lower elevations Wed-Thur look to
be around 20-40%. High temperatures will generally be in the
60s/70s possibly warming into the low 80s by mid week before
slightly cooling back to the 70s for the end of the week. TS

&&

.AVIATION...

With the clearing of rain showers this morning, localized areas
of fog/ low stratus could cause MVFR/IFR conditions through
sunrise. Isolated showers and t-storms will develop this
afternoon with the potential to cause brief MVFR conditions under
areas of heavy rain. Mountain obscurations beginning this
afternoon are likely. TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 042/068 046/065 043/074 048/080 053/079 052/071
    1/U 05/T    74/W    00/U    00/U    13/T    43/T
LVM 061 037/063 039/062 039/071 044/078 050/077 047/069
    1/B 18/T    73/W    00/U    01/U    25/T    43/T
HDN 066 039/071 046/065 040/074 046/081 050/081 050/073
    1/U 13/T    74/W    00/U    00/U    12/T    43/T
MLS 065 041/070 047/063 044/071 046/080 053/081 053/074
    2/T 21/B    54/W    10/U    00/U    01/B    32/T
4BQ 065 042/071 047/063 044/070 045/080 053/083 053/075
    0/U 01/B    45/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    32/T
BHK 062 038/070 044/062 042/067 042/077 050/081 050/074
    2/T 21/B    46/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    32/T
SHR 064 038/068 041/061 039/070 043/078 049/081 050/074
    0/U 02/T    65/T    10/U    00/U    02/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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