Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
166
FXUS65 KBYZ 180810
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
210 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024
.DISCUSSION...
Through Sunday night...
Sunny skies and diminishing winds on tap for Saturday.
Temperatures will be very pleasant in the 60s across the lower
elevations and foothills. Areas of gusty winds (25-35mph) this
morning will diminish under 25 mph for the majority of the
afternoon.
Another disturbance begins to influence the weather tonight as its
approach digs a trof over the area and pulls in modest plains
moisture overnight. PWATs increase from under 0.25in Saturday
afternoon to over half an inch Sunday morning as this moisture
builds in. Jet dynamics increase over western zones overnight as
well. By sunrise Sunday will see increasing shower activity west
of Billings, focused in the mountains and foothills.
Orographic wind fields are going to play a big role in where
precipitation falls Sunday/Sunday night, as winds turn from
northerly to northwest and finally westerly. Jet dynamics will
stick mainly over the western half of the forecast area through
the event providing the other lifting mechanism for precipitation.
Latest NBM has trended drier over the past 24 hours as the hi-res
models get more input, with heaviest precipitation from the
Beartooth foothills north through the eastern slopes of the Crazy
mountains (prob >0.2in ~50% along the US-191 corridor). Further
east toward Billings latest forecast is showing under a tenth of
an inch (40% chance Billings >0.1in), with little to no
precipitation over SE Montana through Sunday night.
Snow levels drop to around 6500 feet on Sunday, so expect 2 to 4
inches of snow in the highest terrain of the Beartooth/Absaroka
and Crazy mountains Sunday/Sunday night (~50% chance > 3in Snow).
Highs Sunday will range from the mid 50s west to the upper 60s
east, with 20s to 40s in the mountains. Chambers
Monday through Saturday...
On Monday, the shortwave trough will begin to move south out of
the area, leading to mild, drier conditions on Tuesday. Currently,
the best chance for precipitation Monday looks to remain west and
south of Rosebud county, with a 40-60% chance of at least 0.1"
over the mountains and foothills and a 20-40% chance over lower
elevations. Snow is the main precip type expected in the
mountains, but the foothills may see some flakes early Monday
morning. For Tuesday, precip may linger into the afternoon,
primarily over the mountains, with a 20-40% chance of an
additional 0.1".
By late Wednesday into early Thursday, another round of troughing
is expected to move in, continuing the unsettled pattern and daily
chance for precip into the weekend. Precip totals are trending
higher for Thursday, with a widespread 50-70% chance of at least
0.1" and a 30-40% chance of at least 0.25"
High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to 60s through the
period. Archer
&&
.AVIATION...
Gusts up to 20-30 kts at all TAF sites will decrease this
afternoon into evening. Expect isolated mountain showers this
evening, increasing to scattered and spreading as far east as
KBIL by Sunday morning. Archer
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 043/061 039/061 042/061 042/066 045/061 042/064
0/U 16/R 24/W 33/W 14/T 56/T 44/W
LVM 066 040/056 036/058 037/060 039/062 041/058 037/061
0/N 17/T 36/T 34/T 17/T 67/T 45/T
HDN 066 041/064 038/062 040/061 039/069 044/065 041/065
0/U 14/R 23/W 33/W 13/T 56/T 54/W
MLS 064 042/067 040/063 040/061 040/067 044/063 042/065
0/U 12/R 21/B 11/B 12/T 45/W 43/W
4BQ 064 043/069 042/061 041/059 038/067 043/065 042/064
0/U 02/R 22/W 23/W 12/W 35/T 43/W
BHK 064 040/068 038/062 037/060 036/065 039/063 040/063
0/N 12/R 21/B 11/B 02/W 34/W 43/W
SHR 066 040/065 037/057 038/054 035/065 039/064 037/063
0/U 03/T 25/W 55/W 23/T 46/T 54/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
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