Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
687 FXUS65 KBYZ 262004 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 204 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot, dry, and windy conditions Sunday leading to fire weather concerns over areas that did not see beneficial rain last week. - Daily record high temperatures possible Sunday (see table in long term discussion for more information). - Cooler conditions return Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Through Friday night... We have seen post-frontal wind gusts increase over the region, and as of 18z a shift to the W-NW has occurred thru far southeast MT. a Red Flag Warning continues until 6pm for far southeast MT and eastern Sheridan County, and in this area temps have reached 90+ degrees w/ RHs in the teens. After doing 102F yesterday, Sheridan has in fact already reached 94F (which should be the high for the day). The mixed winds will decrease quickly w/ sunset and remain light tonight and Friday. Satellite imagery shows a zonal shortwave moving into eastern MT. The air mass is quite dry and even w/ a period of synoptic scale ascent we are seeing only a few mid & high clouds, including patches of thin high-based cumulus underneath the trof axis. No chance of precip today. Behind the wave we will see the ridge rebound and remain in place, along with a dry air mass, through Friday night. Temperatures will remain quite a bit warmer than normal. Look for highs tomorrow mostly in the 80s, and close to 90F in the south at places like Sheridan & Broadus. JKL Saturday through Thursday... Saturday will be warm and dry with generally light winds under mostly clear to clear skies. Sunday will be even warmer ahead of a mostly dry cold front with temperatures forecast to climb 10 to 20 or more degrees above normal. With the heat on Sunday, there is the potential for daily record high temperatures to be set at our climate sites (see table below). As mentioned above, a mostly dry cold front (with only a low, 15% or less, chance of rain north of Billings during the evening Sunday) will cross through the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Breezy conditions are anticipate ahead of, along, and behind the front Sunday through Monday. Because of the combination of hot temperatures, breezy winds, and a wind shift with the front, fire weather concerns exist for Sunday across areas where beneficial rain did not occur with the last system. While Monday will still be breezy, much cooler temperatures (high chance for temperatures to remain below 70F) and higher relative humidity values will limit the fire weather threat. Tuesday looks to be a quite day as shortwave ridging moves through aloft. By Wendesday into Thursday, another cold front may drop through the region allowing breezy conditions to return with near normal temperatures. With this, a low chance of light precipitation returns to the region (less than 15%). However, uncertinaty remains between ensemble members on how the middle to end of next week will play out. Arends LOCATION | CURRENT RECORD | PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE Sheridan, WY | 91 (1989) | 95% Baker, MT | 89 (2022) | 85% Billings, MT | 89 (1989) | 80% Livingston, MT | 89 (1967) | 50% Miles City, MT | 94 (1989) | 45% && .AVIATION... Breezy W-N winds with gusts of 20-30 knots over much of the area will persist until sunset. Expect winds to decrease quickly this evening and remain light through Friday. VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 050/084 053/083 054/091 047/062 039/074 048/069 039/063 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/B 10/B LVM 046/084 047/085 052/088 039/064 036/077 045/070 034/065 00/U 00/U 00/N 10/U 00/U 00/U 11/B HDN 047/085 049/086 050/094 046/063 037/076 044/070 037/064 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/B 10/U MLS 048/085 051/087 055/092 050/061 038/072 046/069 039/063 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 4BQ 049/087 051/090 059/095 050/063 038/073 047/073 039/066 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U BHK 044/086 049/088 055/092 046/063 034/071 043/069 036/063 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/N 00/U 00/U 10/U SHR 046/088 048/090 052/095 045/063 035/076 043/073 036/065 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES 131-133. WY...Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONE 274. && $$ weather.gov/billings