Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
330 FXUS62 KCAE 201420 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1020 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate the region through early Thursday keeping fair and dry conditions in place along with warming temperatures. A frontal boundary will approach the region Thursday and is expected to stall just north of the area resulting in chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Upper level ridging is beginning to build in from the west, while surface high pressure extends southwest into the region. Strong subsidence will prevail through tonight as a result. Cumulus/stratocumulus will expand in coverage this afternoon due to daytime heating, and with soundings showing sufficient moisture for skies to become at least partly cloudy this afternoon. Clearing should then occur later this evening and overnight with the loss of daytime heating. As for temperatures, northeast winds at the surface will keep highs near to slightly below normal today, with lower 80s most areas. Lows will be slightly below normal due to a dry airmass, with upper 50s to lower 60s expected by daybreak Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday through Wednesday night will be dominated by surface high pressure and upper level ridging. This will keep dry air in the mid and upper levels over the region while at the surface weak moisture return will begin Wednesday. Pwat values will be around 0.8 inches Tuesday and increase to around 1.0 inches Wednesday. With a subsidence inversion and the dry air aloft continue to expect some vertically limited diurnal cumulus each day with no showers or thunderstorms. Cumulus which develop will dissipate with sunset providing partly cloudy days and mostly clear nights with winds generally around 5 mph each day. With the upper level ridging and increasing heights temperatures will be rising each day with highs Tuesday afternoon in the mid 80s and into the upper 80s Wednesday. Radiational cooling conditions will be excellent Tuesday night allowing lows to drop into the upper 50s to around 60 then increasing clouds will limit cooling Wednesday night yielding lows in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models have generally remained on track with minor changes this run which keeps the GFS the more dynamic solution through the long term with the ECMWF taking a more zonal approach. A cold front will be moving toward the region Thursday then stall just north of the area Thursday night and Friday. Southerly flow Thursday and Friday will keep moisture advecting into the area with pwats Thursday reaching 1.25 inches and 1.5 inches Friday. Although moisture will be on the rise with the front struggling to reach the area a strong trigger mechanism for convection will be lacking. With the upper level trough flattening in response to a short wave passing north of the region expect the potential for other short waves to possibly generate some convection or even the sea breeze during the afternoon and evening hours. Overall the highest potential for convection Thursday and Friday remains over the northern Midlands and Pee Dee closer to the frontal boundary. For Saturday and Sunday an upper level short wave will be crossing the region Saturday with the upper level pattern returning to more zonal on Sunday. With moisture remaining above seasonal levels expect chances of showers and thunderstorms each day. High temperatures through the long term will be near to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the Period. Scattered cumulus expected at the terminals through early this evening, followed by clearing with the loss of daytime heating. VFR conditions will persist into Monday night. Winds will remain out of the northeast at 5-10 kt today, becoming light and variable later this evening and overnight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant flight restrictions are currently anticipated through Wednesday. Low probability of restrictions during the late week period from afternoon and evening convection. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$