Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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436 FXUS62 KCAE 191455 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1055 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Abundant moisture across the region will keep rain chances likely lingering into Sunday, especially across the CSRA. Drier air will be over the region for Monday through Wednesday along with warming temperatures.The next frontal boundary will approach the region Thursday and is expected to stall just north of the area resulting in chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An upper level low and associated reflection at the surface is positioned across east-central Georgia as of late this morning. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front extends eastward from the surface low across the lower CSRA and into southern SC, with a northerly wind shift noted behind the front. In addition, a secondary front appears positioned across the northern Midlands, with a slight uptick in winds and notably drier air north of that boundary. Convection is ongoing across the upper CSRA in proximity to the upper and surface lows. Light isolated to scattered showers could be a possibility along and south of the the secondary front as it drops southward through the afternoon. However, higher resolution mesoscale models show more robust convection along the backdoor cold front into this afternoon, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly impacting the lower CSRA and parts of the southern Midlands. The northerly flow and overcast skies, which should last through much of the afternoon, will limit overall heating today. As a result, expect highs in the mid to upper 70s, warmest across the southern Midlands and CSRA. As drier air filters southward through the day, rainfall potential will come to an end by this evening, with dry conditions overnight. Clouds will also decrease during the evening. With clearing skies and drier air filtering in, a cool night is anticipated with forecast lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be moving toward the central Atlantic States from the western Great Lakes today and be centered north of the area tonight. This will keep dry conditions over the forecast area with northerly winds between 5 and 10 mph from late morning through the afternoon hours. With cool and dry air in the mid and low levels the only clouds expected through the period will be some cirrus crossing the region. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 50s to around 60. Radiational cooling will be good tonight however light winds combined with the cirrus will prevent cooling from becoming optimal. This will yield overnight lows ranging from the low 30s north to the upper 30s in the SE Midlands and southern CSRA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level trough will continue tracking away from the region Monday as upper level ridging builds from the western Gulf States through New England. On Tuesday the ridge will migrate slightly eastward with its progress being slowed by the deep upper level trough remaining over the western Atlantic. At the surface weak high pressure will be in control of the Atlantic Seaboard keeping drier air over the forecast area for Monday and Tuesday. Pwat values will drop to around 0.9 inches Monday morning and remain there through Tuesday with model soundings indicating a weak subsidence inversion. With the subsidence inversion suppressing convection expect cumulus to develop each day however vertical development will be limited. Temperatures will also moderate slightly each day as the upper level ridge builds into the region and surface flow turns from northeasterly to easterly on Tuesday. As such afternoon high temperatures on Monday will be in the low 80s and the mid 80s on Tuesday. With mostly clear skies and light winds expected each night radiational cooling will be good allowing overnight lows to fall into the upper 50s to around 60s each night. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Restrictions Likely to Persist at the Terminals this Morning... A backdoor cold front continues to drop south of the terminals late this morning, with a secondary front poised to press through the area later this afternoon. Flight restrictions are present at most terminals due to lowered ceilings late this morning. These low clouds are likely to persist through late afternoon. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible at the terminals this afternoon, mainly at AGS/DNL. Thunderstorm potential has been omitted from the TAFs for now due to low confidence. Drier air moves in from the north this evening allowing ceilings to rise to VFR by 00Z Monday with clearing skies tonight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... No significant flight restrictions are currently anticipated Monday through Wednesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$