757
FXUS62 KCAE 011834
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
234 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure over the area this morning will move off the
coast this afternoon. Moisture increases over the region through
early to mid next week. This will lead to isolated to scattered
convection mainly in the afternoon and evening. A cold front
will approach the Southeast late next week leading increasing
rain chances. Temperatures should rise to near normal values
over the next few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
After starting the day on the cooler side with lows in the low 50s,
temperatures are now in the upper 70s and low 80s across the region.
Scattered to broken mainly thin cirrus are streaming across the area
from the west, while an increasing cu field can be seen on satellite
imagery moving inland from the coast. Sharp ridging aloft will
continue to linger across the eastern US throughout the day today,
with an associated surface high pressure center sagging southeast
offshore. This should generally keep precip associated with an
approaching disturbance off to our west until late in the period.
Southeast winds this afternoon will slowly begin to moderate low
level moisture and increase dewpoints. Lows tonight will be a bit
warmer (by about 10 degree compared to last night) thanks to the
moisture return and increasing cloud cover ahead of the next system.
Therefore expect lows in the 60`s in most spots as PWAT`s increase
to 1"-1.25" by early Sunday morning. We`ll also keep an eye out for
some isolated light showers possible particularly across the western
Midlands and CSRA before 7 am Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As surface high pressure and ridging aloft more further east
southerly flow strengthens over the Southeast. This will lead to
PWAT values to increase to around 1.75 inches. A shortwave
trough moves into the region during the day which should
support scattered convection, although instability will likely
be weak with sbCAPE values between 250 and 750 J/kg. CAMs
suggest limited coverage mainly focused in the CSRA and SC
Piedmont where moisture will be deepest. Convection should
diminish early in the evening although weak short wave energy
moving through the eastern trough may trigger isolated showers
into the overnight mainly across the northern Midlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
From the start of the long term through the middle of the week,
global ensembles favor zonal upper level flow or weak ridging
over the area. Atmospheric moisture will be near or above normal
with ensembles trending on the side of higher moisture in
general over the period. With PWAT values near or above normal
and weak shortwave activity present in the region we would
typically expect isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Although convection would generally develop in
the afternoon shortwave activity could promote thunderstorms
into the evening or overnight based on their timing. The
convection should be isolated to widely scattered through mid-
week with a trigger lacking. Temps continue to be warm with
deep southerly flow in place warm.

The ensembles suggest more convective coverage by mid to late
week as an anomalously deep upper low moves from the northern
Plains into the eastern CONUS. Ensemble members have come into
better agreement with the amplitude and timing of the trough but
some differences remain. The cold front associated with the
trough will move toward the region Thursday and may pass through
the area late in the week. The potential for a frontal passage
will lead to PoPs increasing late week however, there are still
a handful of ensemble members that keep the front north of the
area. The track of the front will play a large role in the
forecast for the end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Winds generally southeast into this evening at 5-10 kts with a few
gusts around 15 kts. A summer-like 5-6kft MSL scattered cumulus
field is expected to move in from the coast as moisture returns to
the region. Winds weaken overnight with mid-level clouds increasing.
Rain chances start to increase Sunday morning, but confidence is
still too low in timing and coverage for any mention at the
terminals yet. CIGs will likely decrease as scattered showers move
in, but confidence in any restrictions is currently low. Winds
becoming southerly for Sunday at 5-10 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms Sunday through Wednesday with intermittent
CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$