Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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731 FXUS61 KCAR 290145 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 945 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region overnight through early Wednesday. Upper level low pressure will remain over the area into Thursday then slowly lift to the northeast on Friday. High pressure builds in from the west on Saturday and drifts overhead by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Update... The last of the showers and isolated thunderstorms has exited to the east of Houlton and across the international border into New Brunswick province. Weak cold front is moving across the region at time, with secondary cold front to the west, across Quebec province. That secondary front will cross the region later tonight through early Wednesday morning. Drier air will follow the passage of the front overnight. Until then, there could be patchy fog developing for a while tonight. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s to around 50 north and lower 50s Downeast. See updated aviation section below. previous discussion By Wednesday, weak surface ridging will move into the area, clearing out clouds in the south, but keeping the north in mostly to partly cloud skies. The cool and breezy W flow will drive temps into the mid 60s in the north and low 70s in the south. With dewpoints in the 40s in the north and 50s in the south, much drier conditions are expected for the day. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A broad scale upper trough remains over New England through the period while a large area surface high pressure over eastern Canada settles southward towards the Great Lakes region during the period. The surface ridge will be the dominant feature with little to no precip expected. A cold front exits offshore Wednesday night with lows dropping into the 40s to near 50F. Cannot rule out some lows in the mid 30s for the North Woods and some patchy frost. Guidance has struggled with a another shortwave rounding the base of the broad upper trough Thursday and whether it would move from southern New England and brush the Downeast coast. Chances have continued to trend lower with the latest analysis and guidance, and have dropped to slight chance PoPs on the coast Thursday. In general, we have trended towards less cloud cover and increased highs towards the upper 60s to near 70F. The coast will enjoy these temps with the offshore flow, but the flow will be light enough to ensure an afternoon sea breeze. With the unseasonably cool air mass in place, the concern for Thursday night will be lows in the 30s in northern zones and frost potential. For Friday, the trend has continued to swing towards less clouds, lower shower chances in the upper trough and nominally higher temps. Highs will range from the mid 60s in the Saint John Valley to around 70F in the Bangor area and the coast. Once again, the afternoon sea breeze will kick in along the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The long wave upper trough will slowly move out of the area Friday in favor of a high amplitude upper ridge during the remainder of the period. The overall trend will be towards no PoPs and warmer temperatures into the weekend. The upper ridge begins building Friday and now appears likely to remain over the area well into next week. High temperatures will move from just below seasonable norms on Friday towards above normal by Saturday into Tuesday. Highs above 80F becoming increasingly likely by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Localized patchy fog is possible at the Aroostook terminals til about 06z, otherwise VFR tonight, then possible MVFR ceilings developing 10z to 14z Wednesday. VFR Wednesday afternoon. SW wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming W to NW 10 to 15 kt after midnight and continuing on Wednesday. KBGR...VFR through Wednesday. S to SW wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight 10 to 15 kt. KBHB...LIFR/VLIFR in fog, then improving to VFR after 10z. VFR on Wednesday. S wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming SW to W 10 to 15 kt late tonight through Wednesday. SHORT TERM: Wednesday night into Saturday...VFR with NW winds 5 to 10 kt. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Seas continue to diminish, thus have discontinued the SCA for the outerwaters. Winds/seas should remain below SCA levels through Wednesday. Visibility will be reduced at times tonight to 1 to 3 NM in patchy fog. SHORT TERM: No significant weather is expected through the period as high pressure dominates. Seas will slowly diminish from around 3 to 4 feet on Wednesday night towards 1 to 2 feet by later in the week. Winds will be variable, but gusts will generally be 10 kt or less. No fog is anticipated during the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...TWD/LaFlash Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...TWD/LaFlash/MCW Marine...TWD/LaFlash/MCW