562
FXUS61 KCAR 292134
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
534 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure will remain over the area into
Thursday then slowly lift to the northeast on Friday. High
pressure builds in from the west on Saturday and drifts overhead
by Sunday lasting into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
630 pm update...No changes. Skies are clearing and radiational
cooling should result in lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s in
the north tonight. Mid to upper 40s continue to look reasonable
for the southern half of the forecast area.

Previous discussion...
The upper level trof will continue to swing through the region
tonight. For this evening and into tonight, upper air model
soundings show a drying column in the north, which will clear
out clouds early while the south will hold on to the clouds
through the night. With the calm winds, clear skies, and the
cool airmass, temps in the north are expected to reach into the
low 40s with areas in the North Woods reach into the upper 30s.

By Thursday, the axis of the upper level trof will start to tilt
over New England. The vorticity model show a vort max moving
across the waters and one swings across the north throughout the
day. The south shortwave will bring clouds across the south in
the morning and increase through the day. In addition, moisture
with the southern shortwave will bring afternoon showers across
Downeast. For the north shortwave, the clouds will start to
build in in the afternoon. Though the north will see more
sunshine, the NW flow and cool air will keep temps in the mid
60s, while the south will be in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upr low will be located over the Gaspe Peninsula on Thursday evening
with trof slowly moving acrs the area Thursday night, perhaps
lingering into Friday. Showers will likely be offshore early in the
period as initial s/wv moves over the waters, pushing south and east
at the same time. Skies will likely clear out in the evening with
nrn and srn areas last to see moclr skies. H8 temps likely to drop
near 0C acrs the north and with skies clearing and winds possibly
decoupling mins Thursday night may be a degree or two cooler than
previous night. Not confident to undercut guidance at this point but
cannot rule out more patchy frost over deeper valleys of the North
Woods late Thursday night.

With upr trof moving over CWA during the day on Friday and moisture
lingering around H8 cannot rule out self-destructive cumulus during
the afternoon. Skies on Friday morning should start off mostly sunny
before becoming partly sunny. Downeast likely to see temps rise into
the u60s/around 70 with northern areas remaining in the 60s for
one last day.

Friday night will see H5 ridge building toward the area Friday night
into Saturday. Clear skies likely overnight and mostly sunny skies
expected Saturday. Temps expected to be around normal values Friday
night, then climbing above normal on Saturday as heights rise.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500mb ridge looks to hold thru the weekend before it begins to
flatten as nrn stream moves over Hudsons Bay. At the same time upr
low will be retrograding back twd ern Canada due to upstream
blocking over the North Atlantic. Showers should stay far enuf east
of the area on Monday but with easterly flow expected have dropped
temps by a degree or two over the east on Monday and Tuesday.

Current guidance is hinting at an omega block setting up over the
North Atlantic by mid-week. This likely to keep temps on the cool
side with NBM ranging from highs in the 60s on Tuesday and
Wednesday to as warm as the 90s, thus have gone with the NBM
but mixed in slightly cooler temps acrs the east.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions for all terminals tonight and
Thursday. For tonight, light NW winds. For Thursday, NNW winds
5-10 kts.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday night-Saturday...Mainly VFR. N 5-10kts each afternoon,
light in the morning.

Saturday night-Monday...Mainly VFR. Light and variable winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions
tonight and Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and will remain below small craft levels
through the weekend. Patchy fog will likely reduce visibilities
at times through the period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash/MCW
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...LaFlash/MCW/Buster
Marine...LaFlash/MCW/Buster