189
FXUS62 KCHS 301049 AAA
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Charleston SC
649 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area through early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The front is pushing steadily south. The forecast is on track.
No changes are needed.

Today: A dry cold front will push south through the area over
the next few hours and is on target to clear the Altamaha River
just after daybreak. Weak, post-frontal cold air advection will
be brief and will become neutral later in the day, but a mean
northerly wind component will keep conditions much cooler
compared to the past few day where a strong downslope component
prevailed. Full sun thickness schemes support highs in the mid-
upper 80s which is on track with the 30/00z statistical
guidance means. A weak sea breeze will begin to develop along
the coast by early afternoon and trek slowly inland through
sunset. The only real impact from its passage will an uptick in
dewpoints and a veering of the wind from north/northeast to
east/southeast. The atmosphere looks too dry to support the
development of fair weather cumulus, but occasional strands of
high clouds will pass through at times.

Tonight: High pressure will build south into the Southeast U.S.
tonight. The boundary layer looks to decouple shortly after
sunset with the sea breeze circulation quickly breaking down
across the coastal counties. Clear skies, low dewpoints and
calm/light winds will support strong radiational cooling. Low
temperatures favoring the colder side of the 30/00z guidance
were used to construct overnight temperatures taking into
account usual mesoscale influences and the warmer SSTs at the
coast and in the Santee-Cooper Lakes. Similar to this morning,
very tight thermal gradients will be observed near bodies of
water. Lows will range from the upper 50s/near 60 inland to the
lower 70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level trough shifts off the East Coast on Friday. Ridging
will then briefly traverse overhead early in the weekend,
before a weak disturbance moves through on Sunday. At the
surface, high pressure initially centered north of the area will
eventually drift east and offshore, maintaining control of the
local weather. Lack of moisture or any notable forcing will keep
quiet and dry conditions through at least Saturday. Could see a
few diurnal showers/thunderstorms on Sunday, but even then
coverage looks sparse. Rain chances are no higher than 20% and
mainly focused over far inland areas.

It will feel quite pleasant with highs largely in the mid 80s
and low humidity. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, except more mild at the immediate coast.
Low temps will gain a couple degrees for Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Atlantic high pressure is expected to extend across the region
during the early to middle of next week. Aloft, ridging looks
to rebuild over the area, with potential for a weak wave to
approach towards midweek. Still no day that looks particularly
active. Forecast continues to feature just slight chance/20%
PoPs during the day for diurnally-driven showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be near to above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
30/12z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 31/12z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: A brief northerly surge will occur this morning behind a
cold front. The front will clear the far southern waters shortly
after daybreak. North winds will begin to veer to the northeast
through the afternoon, veering more east to southeast near the
coast and Charleston Harbor as a sea breeze develops. Speeds 15
kt with gusts to 20 kt this morning will diminish to 5-10 kt by
this afternoon. Seas will average 2-3 ft.

Tonight: After a period of light winds in the evening, a more
northerly component will become reestablished as high pressure
to the north builds south. Speeds will hold less than 10 kt with
seas 1-2 ft.

Friday through Tuesday: High pressure initially centered north
of the region will shift east and offshore over the weekend.
Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend over the area
through the middle of next week. Conditions stay below Small
Craft Advisory levels through the period, with winds speeds 15
knots or less and seas averaging 2-3 feet.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$