Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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700 FXUS62 KCHS 010733 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 333 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the area through early next week. A cold front could approach late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, the day will begin with high amplitude ridging across the eastern CONUS. The ridge will steadily shift to the east as a shortwave nudges in from the west. At the surface, high pressure will be the primary feature become centered just off the North Carolina coast by the afternoon hours. Precipitable water values gradually rise through the day, but remain relatively low, starting off around 0.5" in the morning and becoming 0.7-0.9" by late in the day. Model soundings reveal the relatively dry atmosphere, with notable capping in the 700-800 mb layer. Therefore, we have maintained the dry forecast with no diurnal convection expected. Onshore flow will keep temperatures down a bit, and highs are forecast to be at or slightly below normal for early June. The forecast features highs peaking mostly in the mid 80s, a bit less as you get closer to the coast and perhaps a bit higher the further inland you go. Tonight: The aforementioned shortwave will continue to push in from the west should be aligned right on top of the area by early Sunday morning. This will bring a steady rise in precipitable water values, especially in southeast Georgia where values should be around 1.5" by sunrise Sunday. Some high-res model solutions suggest that isolated convection could develop within the arriving higher precipitable water air, but we have opted not to include any mention of anything at this time. However, it isn`t out of the question for there to be an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the west late in the overnight, and rain chances could eventually need to be included in the forecast. Overnight lows will not be as cool as the last few nights, with lows in the low 60s inland and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak upper ridging will prevail Sunday through Tuesday though a few weak shortwaves could ripple through the area. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure will persist, maintaining southerly flow and decent low-level moisture advection. We should see isolated to scattered diurnal convection during the period, primarily driven by a progressive sea breeze. The greatest coverage should be farther inland. Warm advection will result in steadily warming temperatures each day, with highs touching the lower 90s away from the coast by Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A zonal flow mid week will transition to a broad upper trough late week with a possible cold front dropping into the area Thursday or Friday. If this occurs, this would likely be the best chance for greater convective coverage as well as storm intensity. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Sunday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through early to mid week. && .MARINE... Today and tonight: Easterly flow this morning will become southeasterly later on in the day and persist through the overnight. Wind speeds should mostly fall into the 10-15 knot range, with some gusts up to around 20 knots mainly along the land/sea interface this afternoon and early this evening. Seas should average 2-3 feet through the period, but could be up to 4 feet at times in the outer Georgia waters. A typical summertime pattern will prevail Sunday through Thursday as Atlantic high pressure remains in place. A decent sea breeze should develop each afternoon along the coast. Winds should remain below 15 kt and seas no higher than 4 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...BSH/JRL MARINE...BSH/JRL