518
FXUS62 KCHS 200541
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
141 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north tonight and persist
through most of this week. A series of upper level disturbances
will impact the area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Pronounced short-wave has progressed out of the Georgia outer
waters along with the bulk of remaining convection, although
isolated showers along the western edge of the circulation continue
to rotate down through the coastal waters, skirting the Georgia
coast. Quite a bit of lower cloud cover along the northern and
western edge also remains across a good portion of the forecast
area, but with drier air/clearing skies slowly working in from
the north.

Remaining showers should pull away from the Georgia coast over
the next few hours. Lower cloud cover might be a bit more
problematic based on satellite trends. Sky cover and pops were
tweaked to reflect current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep layered ridging will occur Monday through Wednesday,
bringing dry weather and warming temperatures. There will be
weak cold advection on Monday as the surface high remains to the
north. This will keep highs in the lower 80s, except upper 70s
near the coast where a decent sea breeze will develop. The
surface high will shift off the coast Monday night as the upper
ridge continues to build. Increasing thicknesses Tuesday into
Wednesday will produce a warming trend with highs in the mid 80s
Tuesday and upper 80s Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep layered ridging will continue Wednesday night through
Friday, with above normal temperatures continuing. A series of
shortwaves will then impact the area late Friday afternoon
through early next week, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: MVFR to VFR cloud cover will persist at the
terminals through the overnight, with gradual N-S clearing and
return to VFR conditions by morning. VFR conditions then persist
through the day Monday but with SCT to perhaps BKN "heating of
the day" Cumulus develop late morning and persisting through the
afternoon. Turning clear Monday evening.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The cold front will push south of the southern waters
this evening. Northeast winds will dominate through the night
with speeds generally 15-20 kt. Observations off the lower South
Carolina coast show gusts 25-27 kt, but these may be
convectively driven and not necessarily representative of
prevailing conditions. The gradient will tighten a bit
overnight, so gusts to 25 kt could become common if the gradient
tightens more than expected. Conditions were held below Small
Craft Advisory levels for now. Seas will build 2-4 ft, except
3-5 ft in the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore zone.

Monday through Friday: Monday and Monday night, a decent NE
gradient is expected as high pressure remains to the north. A
few 25 kt wind gusts are possible in the coastal waters, and
seas could briefly reach 6 ft over GA offshore waters. The
gradient will relax by Tuesday as the surface high moves east
and winds turn to the SE. A more typical summer wind pattern
will set up for mid to late week with daily sea breezes along
the coast.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of rising astronomical tides with the upcoming Full
Moon and moderate NE winds will cause tides to be elevated early
this week. Minor flooding is possible with the evening high tides
Monday through Wednesday along the South Carolina coast.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$