817
FXUS61 KCLE 222342
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
742 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move slowly across the area this evening and reach
the Ohio River by Thursday morning. High pressure will settle across
the area for Thursday. The former cold front over the Ohio River
will be lifted north as a warm front on Friday. A cold front will
move across the area on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level moisture has begun to rebound with the approach of a
mid-level shortwave from the Upper Midwest this evening,
resulting in thunderstorm coverage to begin increasing along a
cold front, draped generally between the I-75 and I-71 corridors
in Ohio. Anticipate thunderstorm coverage to gradually increase
over the next couple of hours along the cold front as mid-level
moisture continues to stream in from the southwest. The
environment remains favorable for strong to severe storms this
evening with MLCAPE of ~2000 J/kg and slightly higher bulk shear
of 35 to 40 knots, especially across northern Ohio. If
convective trends continue, could see a severe thunderstorm
watch issued at some point, but will continue to monitor. Any
severe potential should be confined to mainly a large hail and
damaging wind gust threat as low level SRH remains limited.

Previous Discussion...
A cold front will settle south across the region tonight and
more convection may develop this evening before drier and more
stable air overspreads the region. Deep shear is 30-40 knots and
MLCAPE is > 2500 J/kg with little in the way of a cap but
convection has struggled to initiate. There is still a 3-4 hour
window for convective initiation before sunset and stabilization
occurs. The cold front will become diffuse as it becomes
stationary along the Ohio River by Thursday morning. Weak high
pressure will build over Lake Erie and northern Ohio on Thursday
and produce mainly dry cooler conditions. The front will begin
to lift northward Friday evening and a few showers are possible
in the southern edge of CWA south of US 30. Overnight lows will
be about 10 degrees cooler than last night. Highs on Thursday
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The weather pattern looks somewhat unsettled as we head into
the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend and the unofficial start to
the summer season. Friday is looking like a very nice fair
weather day. There will be a ridge of high pressure at the
surface extending down from Ontario and across the eastern
Great Lakes region on Friday. In the mid and upper levels, there
will be a small upper level ridge that will track over the
Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley regions on Friday as well.
Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy on Friday with light
winds becoming more southerly late in the day. Afternoon
temperatures on Friday will climb back into the lower and middle
80s areawide. The surface flow will be rather light and weak
which should allow a lake breeze to develop and try to push
inland from the lakeshore later Friday afternoon.

A nearly vertically stacked low pressure system both at the
surface up through the upper levels will be spinning near the
North Central US and southern Canadian border Friday into
Saturday. This slow moving system will try to push a weak cold
front into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region late Friday
night into early Saturday. Rain chances will increase to likely
POPs late Friday night through much of Saturday before a gradual
drying trend from west to east late Saturday afternoon. This
weak front will not have much energy to work with and will be
coming through during the least favorable time of the day for
thunderstorms to get out of hand. We are expected mainly
scattered showers with a few embedded thunder possible but
no organized convection with this particular system. Saturday
high temps will be just a touch cooler than the previous day but
still above average in the upper 70s to lower 80s. We will have
a break in between  weather systems Saturday night with a small
area of high pressure moving through and period of quiet
weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Over the next few days, we will be watching the next potential
storm system on the horizon that could bring a some stronger
storms and widespread soaking rainfall across the region late
Sunday through Monday. The Ohio Valley will be in a deep layer
southwesterly flow by Sunday. Forecast model guidance has been
consistence on showing a stronger surface low developing in the
Central Plains later this weekend tracking through the Cornbelt
Region into the Midwest on Sunday. There will be a lead shortwave
that will track across the lower Great Lakes region on Sunday. A
warm front will lift across the area Sunday afternoon/evening.
This warm front will have some added lift associated with
that lead shortwave to foster the development showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

A surface low will track across the Chicago area Sunday evening
and continue northeastward through Lower Michigan Sunday night.
We will have to keep an eye on this system and what eventually
evolves with the potential of an outbreak of severe storms
across portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley region late
Sunday into the overnight. There will be a stronger shortwave
trough that will be tracking through the Midwest and Great Lakes
region with this low pressure system and cold front. SPC has a
day 5 severe weather outlook for a large area just west of our
local area. This outlook area may eventually be expanded into
our local area as confidence increases and we see a clearer
picture of the potential thermodynamics that may develop.

The storm system will slow down as it tracks through the Great
Lakes into southern Ontario on Monday. A trailing cold front
will eventually push through the area late morning or midday on
Monday. This low pressure system will evolve into a large
stacked system with deep upper level trough digging across the
Great Lakes region early next week. The weather pattern will go
from summer like this week to much cooler weather with periods
of off and on showers passing through Tuesday through Wednesday.
High temps will be in the 60s and overnight lows in the 50s
early to middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this evening with primarily VFR to
persist through the TAF period. The biggest chance of non-VFR
conditions will exist across all TAF sites except TOL/ERI over
the next several hours as thunderstorms continue to increase in
coverage along a cold front and thus have included a small
window of vcts. Did include a 2-hour tempo at MFD for
thunderstorms, given increased confidence and upstream
thunderstorms already present.

Winds ahead of the cold front will generally be from the south
to southwest, around 10 knots. Winds will shift towards the west
to northwest behind the cold front tonight, 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...Scattered showers and storms on Friday and Saturday
could produce brief non-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move across Lake Erie this evening. Winds will
diminish below 10 knots and shift to the west/northwest behind
the front before becoming variable and remaining under 10 knots
Thursday through much of Friday. Expect flow to shift from the
southeast to southwest and increase to 10 to 15 knots as a cold
front crosses the lake Saturday before gradually backing to the
east/northeast Saturday evening into Sunday. A warm front will
cause winds to shift to the southeast Sunday evening.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...Kahn/LaPlante
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Griffin