633
FXUS61 KCLE 311042
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
642 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered overhead today shifts east on Saturday,
allowing weak low pressure to drift through Saturday night into
Sunday. High pressure returns late Sunday and Sunday night
before a warm front lifts through on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure in full control through Saturday morning. It will
be mainly sunny/clear through tonight with just some thin
cirrus spreading in from the west by dawn Saturday. The clouds
will gradually thicken and lower Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening ahead of a shortwave and weak surface low
lifting out of the Mississippi Valley. The arrival of this
system has trended slightly slower, and while the forecast still
has a modest rain mention across Northwest Ohio late Saturday
afternoon odds are increasing that most or all of the area stays
rain-free until later in the evening or overnight.

After a chilly start this morning expect most of us to warm into
the 70s this afternoon. A lake breeze will keep much of the
central and eastern lakeshore a bit cooler. On the flip side,
the I-75 corridor will near 80. Lows tonight will exhibit a fair
bit of spread with rural valleys from eastern OH into PA
cooling nicely into the 40s, while hilltops, urban areas, and
Northwest OH remaining several degrees milder in the 50s. The
slightly slower approach of our system late Saturday has allowed
highs to trend up a degree or so from the previous forecast,
now at or just above 80 for most of the forecast area. Winds
will be light through Saturday morning, picking up a bit out of
the south Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level shortwave trough and associated weak surface low move
across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday night into
Sunday. Confidence continues to increase in the occurrence of rain
showers Saturday night, beginning out west along the I-75 corridor
and then gradually spreading eastward across the region through the
overnight hours, reaching areas east of I-77 through Sunday morning.
Did retain a slight chance mention of thunderstorms based on some
limited MUCAPE present in some model guidance, but it appears very
unlikely and wouldn`t be surprised to see this trend of lowering
thunderstorm chances continue with future updates. Should be a solid
period of 6-9 hours of on and off light rain showers, with a chance
for moderate rainfall at times. Average areawide QPF is expected to
be around 0.1-0.25", with many areas likely to get 0.5-0.75" of rain.

Some showers are likely to linger into the afternoon hours
especially east of I-77 and south of US-30, though likely to be dry
by Sunday night as high pressure builds in. The latest NBM is
hinting at some fog potential Sunday night, especially for parts of
central and east-central Ohio. Did not include it in the forecast
just yet because there is some uncertainty with rain/cloud cover in
the afternoon, and just because fog is notoriously difficult to
forecast.

High pressure remains overhead on Monday before departing to the
east on Monday night. Temperatures rise back to above normal with
highs likely into the low 80s areawide Monday afternoon. We`re also
likely to remain dry during this period although some isolated
showers and thunderstorms could move in Monday night, though it`s
unlikely.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Persistent southerly flow on the backside of the departing low is
likely to advect a warm, moist environment to the region, with highs
in the low to mid 80s and surface dew points rising to the mid-upper
60s Tuesday and Wednesday. PoPs gradually increase on Tuesday, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected in an environment
characterized by modest instability (MUCAPE around 750-1500 J/kg) and
little to no forcing or shear. By Wednesday an upper-level trough
approaches from the west-northwest, providing a little bit more
forcing for ascent for showers and thunderstorm activity on
Wednesday and Thursday (though PoPs still only generally in the 40-
60% range, depending on time/location). There is a low chance for
severe weather on Wednesday, with CSU-ML showing a 5% chance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period as high
pressure remains stationed over the area. Skies will be clear
through this evening with high clouds building in from the west
later tonight. Light and variable winds are in place under high
pressure. Light south-southeasterly winds will develop at TOL
and FDY this afternoon as high pressure pulls away. A lake
breeze will also bring north-northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots at
CLE and ERI this afternoon. Light winds shift more east-
southeast tonight as high pressure continues to exit.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return late Saturday into Sunday in
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Relatively quiet weather is forecast with no marine headlines
expected through the next several days.

High pressure remains over the region today and tonight before a
weak low moves northeast from the mid-Mississippi Valley to just
south of Lake Erie Saturday afternoon through Sunday. High pressure
builds back in Sunday night through Monday before it departs to the
east coast.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Saunders