Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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885 FXUS64 KCRP 070712 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 212 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1252 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Key Messages: - Not quite as hot and plenty of sunshine! High pressure will continue building south across the region through the short term with ample sunshine and slightly drier conditions. This means our heat index values will remain below advisory criteria through Saturday. Another perk of the high pressure is that it will help to clear out the haze that has been sticking around for what feels like an eternity. We will see some of the first truly clear skies across much of the region for the first time in at least a month today and tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1252 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to major heat-related impacts are expected across the Rio Grande Plains to the Coastal Plains and minor to moderate impacts across the Victoria Crossroads first half of next week. Heat Index values (apparent temperatures) are expected to be generally 105 to 109 each afternoon next week. However, some locations across the inland Coastal Plains to the Rio Grande may have brief heat indices around 110 as the sea breeze pushes inland each day. Will have to monitor for possible Heat Advisories through the week. Heat Advisories become more likely the latter part of next week. Actual temperatures will be near to slightly above normal the first part of next week with highs around 90 along the coast to around 100 along the Rio Grande. By mid to late week, temperatures will be hotter with highs around 105 across the Rio Grande Plains. Models continue to show a trough tracking across TX on Sunday and east of the region by Monday resulting in a northwest to north flow aloft as another ridge begins to build into the area from the west. Models are in good agreement that weak embedded short waves will track south to southeast through early next week. However, moisture will remain limited along with a capped environment, which will keep rain chances low (5-20%). The better chances will be across the Coastal Waters where deeper moisture and instability are progged to be located. Overall, most locations will remain dry. The GFS, which is an outlier, indicates the northerly flow aloft will push a cold front through S TX Monday night/Tue morning with convection along the frontal boundary. With the GFS being an outlier and given the time of year, confidence is very low (<10%) that a cold front will make it through S TX. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Mostly VFR conditions are expected tonight, however, some patch fog will likely develop after 09Z. The most likely areas to be impacted by any low clouds or reduced visibility to MFVR or brief IFR conditions are KALI and KVCT. Generally light winds will continue through the forecast period and any fog or low clouds should clear by 13Z, leading to VFR conditions areawide. && .MARINE... Issued at 1252 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Weak onshore flow is expected today increasing to weak to moderate onshore flow levels by tonight. A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist into next week. There is a low (10-20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the offshore waters Sunday, then increasing to low to medium (20-40%) chance Monday through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 76 93 78 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 96 73 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 101 75 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 98 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 93 81 92 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 102 74 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 97 75 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 91 81 90 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLM/93 LONG TERM....TE/81 AVIATION...CLM/93