Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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579 FXUS64 KCRP 202004 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 304 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Key Messages: Moderate to High heat risk of 110-114 degrees or greater expected Tuesday for South Texas The forecast is remaining on track from the previous issuance. Unfortunately, the area will remain under this "heat dome" through the remainder of the short term. Highs are expected to be in the lower 90s to lower 100s out west Tuesday. Models indicate that the 850mb temp is expected to be slightly above our the 99th percentile for this time of year (~25 degrees C). This along with steady mid to upper 70s dew points will yield heat indices in the Coastal Bend and Brush Country to be around 110-114 degrees. With the possibility for some isolated areas to see heat indices reach 115+ degrees, an Excessive Heat Warning is not completely out of the question. Heat is expected to continue building as we move through this week. Make sure to stay hydrated through this tomorrow through the rest of the week with heat stress conditions expected. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Key Messages: - Major to extreme heat-related impacts can be expected through the the work week and into the weekend. High pressure aloft will remain in control this week and into the weekend, keeping hot and humid conditions in place across S TX. Latest models indicate by Wednesday, the extreme heat-related impacts will occur mainly across the western half of S TX with the Coastal Bend in a major heat risk and the Victoria area in a moderate heat risk. However, the extreme conditions spread north and east through the week and reach the inland Coastal Bend this weekend, with a major risk across the eastern Coastal Bend along the coast and Victoria Crossroads. With major to extreme heat-related impacts, Heat Advisories will likely be issued each day, with Excessive Heat Warnings possible by the end of the week. As for temperatures, they are well above normal for this time of the year. Highs ranging from low 90s along the coast to around 105 along the Rio Grande is expected by Wednesday. A steady increase each day will lead to highs in the mid 90s along the coast, and approaching 110 along the Rio Grande Plains by the weekend. With humid conditions also in place, the Heat Index values will generally range from 110-115 through Thursday to 110-120 by the weekend. The probability of the heat index exceeding 110 degrees across western CWA is 70% or greater. The probability of exceeding 115 degrees increases to 40-70% by the end of the week. As for rain chances, little to no rain (<10%) is expected across much of S TX through the week, due to the upper ridge and dry conditions aloft. That being said, the models do indicate the high pressure will shift slightly east-southeast Wednesday and Thursday with a series of short waves tracking northeast across mainly the Hill Country, but could skirt the northwestern tier of the CWA. Thus, can not rule out a thunderstorm or two across the Cotulla area Wed-Thu time frame. Hazy conditions will likely continue through the period due to fires well south of the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR ceilings will prevail until this evening as low clouds will again push in from the Gulf. This will create MVFR ceilings across the eastern sites (ALI,CRP,VCT) around 00-03Z and around 06-07z for the western sites. A gradient will develop over the western sites and create slightly gusty winds overnight over LRD and COT. These winds could creep into site ALI for a couple of hours as well. Otherwise, MVFR conditions should transition to VFR tomorrow around 15-18Z across all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Weak to moderate east to southeasterly flow is expected through Tuesday. Moderate onshore flow will develop during the day Tuesday creating Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions over the Gulf Waters. A generally moderate onshore flow will persist through the end of the week, with periods of strong onshore flow Wednesday and Thursday afternoons across the southern bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas. Hazy conditions will linger at times through the week as fires continue to burn to our south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 93 79 93 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 77 93 77 91 / 0 10 0 0 Laredo 79 104 79 104 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 77 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 79 89 79 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 79 102 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 94 78 94 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 90 81 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NP/92 LONG TERM....TE/81 AVIATION...NP