Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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776 FXUS64 KCRP 202331 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 631 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Key Messages: - Low to medium chance for coastal flooding this weekend Mid to upper level ridging is expected to continue through tomorrow night. With near to slightly above normal moisture hanging around, another low chance for showers is expected tomorrow afternoon as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Light and variable winds are expected tonight and tomorrow night across South Texas with a low to medium chance for patchy fog to develop with a low chance for isolated areas of dense fog. Slightly above normal temperatures tonight will drop to near normal for tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. The threat for coastal flooding will increase this weekend and long period swells continue across the region. The P-ETSS model is showing water levels increasing to 1.7-1.8 feet above MSL tonight and 1.8-2.0 feet above tomorrow night at times of high tide. The only variable keeping the coastal flood risk at bay is the swell heights remaining under 1 foot. Lastly, with sufficient low level moisture and relatively light winds expected again tomorrow, tropical funnel clouds could briefly develop along the Coastal Bend and Gulf waters. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Mid-level ridging initially overhead will shift eastward and flatten out as we head into next week as a deep mid-level trough digs south into Texas. This trough brings a cold front through north and potentially central Texas, but it looks to dissipate before having any affect on our area. Overall, despite the calendar changing to fall on Sunday, we`re not going to see any traditional fall like conditions on the horizon...but we live in South Texas and we`re used to that. High temperatures remain persistent in the 90s daily with heat index values north of 100 through mid-week. Isolated showers and storms will be possible daily through the weekend but expect limited activity with PWATs forecast to be generally below normal through early next week. Moisture will begin to increase by Tuesday/Wednesday next week and we could see an uptick in activity. We continue to keep an eye on an area of disorganized convection in the northwest Caribbean. The NHC continues to hold a 40% chance of development on this area, but guidance confidence in the details of its future is low as guidance is all over the place in progression, first in terms of when it may organize, and then it`s future movement/strength. We do note a slight increase in swell heights by mid to late next week associated with this activity, but that will be dependent on future development. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 A similar pattern to the previous few days will lead to a fairly consistent TAF forecast. Model guidance still struggles with any fog development but, since persistence suggests we keep some morning fog in for ALI and VCT, have put a mention of MVFR to IFR visibility, as well as MVFR visibility, for these sites from 09Z through 14Z. MVFR ceilings will also be possible for LRD and COT, so have this mentioned from 11Z-14Z as well. Currently, have no mention of showers for any site, but it is not out of the question that sites may need this added as isolated showers will continue this evening and again Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions remain. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through Saturday night with low chances for showers and thunderstorms. With light winds tomorrow morning and sufficient low level moisture, tropical funnel clouds could briefly develop across the Gulf waters. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase this weekend to 30-60% chance next week as a cold front stalls north of the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 90 77 91 / 0 20 0 10 Victoria 74 94 73 92 / 0 10 0 20 Laredo 78 95 76 96 / 10 10 0 10 Alice 76 93 74 94 / 0 20 0 10 Rockport 80 92 79 91 / 0 10 10 10 Cotulla 78 96 76 97 / 0 10 0 0 Kingsville 78 91 75 92 / 0 20 0 10 Navy Corpus 81 88 80 88 / 0 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCP LONG TERM....PH AVIATION...LS/77