968
FXUS61 KCTP 201501
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1101 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft over
Pennsylvania will bring dry conditions, light wind and warmer
temperatures through Wednesday. A storm system moving north of
the Great Lakes will push its southward trailing cold front
through the region on Thursday bringing the next chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Morning fog dissipating rapidly over the Central and South
Central Mountains. More extensive low clouds will be slowest to
dissipate over the Lower Susq. but we expect most should
dissipate by or shortly after 15z. Otherwise it will be a
summerlike day across the region with plenty of sunshine
filtered by high thin cirrus wisps. As noted by previous
shifts and highlighted on multiple model guidance that show and
axis of CAPE likely exceeding 1000 J/KG, there could be just
enough instability across the nrn tier of and Western Mtns in
the aftn to pop a few stray showers and and TSRA. Left PoPs in
the 20-30pct range during the 20Z Monday to 00Z Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tonight will be similar to the last few nights, with perhaps
less of a recurrence of the nighttime stratus. Valley fog is
probable again tonight and will maintain the mention of patchy
fog. Min temps early Tuesday in the upper 50s to around 60 will
likely be a bit milder than Mon AM as well .

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Temperatures will become more mild as we reach the end of this
week with the cold front expected to come through on Thursday
and then stall out just south of PA on Friday. This will mean
that the chance for scattered showers and t-storms will remain
in the forecast for southern PA on the back side of that surface
front. High temperatures will remain in the mid 70s as we move
through Friday and into the weekend.

There is considerable uncertainty heading into the weekend with
regards to rain chances, but it appears that there is a chc
that our weather could remain unsettled. PoPs have been capped
at around 40 given the disagreement between model guidance for
the likelihood of showers and storms. The best looking day for
little rain is currently Sunday with upper level ridging
building in ahead of the next system.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Areas in the SE are currently holding onto low clouds and
borderline MVFR conditions to begin the afternoon. Elsewhere,
widespread VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the day
with light winds. Model guidance shows the potential for a stray
thunderstorm across the northern tier later this afternoon, but
confidence+coverage remains too low to include in the BFD TAF.
VFR prevails this evening into tonight with patchy fog and low
cloud impacts possible again during the predawn and early
morning hours Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tue...VFR/no sig wx.

Wed-Thu...Chance of t-storms.

Fri...Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Evanego
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo/Evanego
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Steinbugl