393
FXUS61 KCTP 300319
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1119 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*Drying trend to end May with below normal temperatures
*Temperatures warm to near normal to start June with rain
 chances increasing into early next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Vortex rolling off to the east, and leaving drying in it`s wake.
Expect the few remaining SHRA to dwindle to nothing in 3-4 hrs.
The wind should stay light and NWrly or go calm. We do see the
start of some dense fog in some of the obs, and have started to
hit fog a little harder in the wx grids filling the valleys. The
clouds out there now will start to be cleared out by the
subsidence. However, some low stratus will be left on the
ridges, esp in the west, through morning. Mins still on track as
the dewpoints shouldn`t drop more than a few degs overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lower PWAT air pouring into the region on Thursday via NNW low
level flow should keep most if not all of the CWA dry. Highs
will again be cooler-than-average with fcst max temps in the
low 60s/70s.

Seasonably strong high pressure dome migrates eastward from the
OH Valley Thursday night into western PA early Friday morning.
This setup should support one of the coolest nights in a while
with low temps in the mid 30s to upper 40s. With light winds and
mainly clear skies across the northern tier, some patchy frost
cannot be completely ruled out.

Center of 1025mb sfc high is parked right overhead by 12Z
Saturday, ensuring the break in the rain continues into the
first weekend of June. Look for max temps to rebound a bit on
the last day of May with highs staying near/below climo. Another
relatively cool night with lows in the 40-50F range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Late evening update changes/deviations from National Blend are
rather small/minor. Main change was to lower PoPs 10-20pct on
Tuesday with chc range (30-50) as the top-end (west) and slight
chc in the east. It looks active after for the rest of the
week.

Prev...
Models diverge with the amplitude of a shortwave trough moving
through the region late Saturday night into Sunday. This feature
will bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to
central PA.

Longer range guidance shows multiple shortwaves moving through
the region into the middle of next week bringing renewed chances
for showers and storms, but confidence in the timing of these
features is low.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The stronger convection from earlier in the day has mostly
diminished across the region. Very little instability remains as
the sun sets this evening. A few showers still remain and will
continue to slowly drift south and east through the early
evening along the track of the surface low, but visibility
restrictions and lighting from storms are not likely.

Guidance suggests lowered vsbys/cigs at BFD/JST overnight into
Thursday due to patchy fog, which seems plausible given
increased low- level moisture, light winds, and potential for
some clearing skies after 02z. The main uncertainty at this time
remains how quickly clouds clear out, which could limit fog
potential across the western highlands. Recent guidance does
suggest an earlier clearing time, so have outlined IFR/LIFR
restrictions with some added uncertainty with regards to timing.

Conds will improve to VFR areawide by mid-late morning Thursday
as high pressure builds overhead. A sct-bkn cu deck is expected
to develop in the afternoon. Northerly winds will gust up to 20
kts in some areas Thu afternoon as the area dries out.

Outlook...

Thu-Sat...Predominantly VFR.

Sun-Mon...Showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Bauco
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Bauco
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...Colbert/Bowen