386
FXUS61 KCTP 280920
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
520 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*Scattered showers/t-storms become more numerous on Wednesday
*Seasonably cool and mostly dry for late week to close out May
*Above average temperatures return into the first week of June

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lead shortwave embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the
Northeast U.S. will combine with diurnal heating to trigger
isolated to scattered non-severe convection over CPA this
afternoon and evening. Max POPs are over the NW Alleghenies and
trend lower into the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Look for a mix of
clouds and sun today with a westerly breeze gusting up to 30
mph. Highs will range from 65-80F from northwest to southeast.

Showers fade through the evening with mainly dry conditions
expected tonight. Focus will shift to more potent upstream
disturbance rotating into the Upper Ohio Valley by 12Z Wed.
Min temps will be in the low to mid 50s or near to slightly
above (+5F) late May climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Short-range model consensus continues to signal the greatest
coverage of showers and t-storms will be Wednesday afternoon
into the the evening. Stronger shortwave rotating along the MD
line will couple with steeper lapse rates/more instability
(thanks to abnormally cool 700mb temps) to promote numerous
showers/t-storms especially over south central PA. The diurnally
enhanced convection will fade/shift to the east Wednesday
night. Final shortwave digs southeastward from the lower Great
Lakes with 500mb heights bottoming out on Thursday. A couple of
showers are possible Thursday afternoon beneath the upper trough
axis, but lower pwat air being directed into the region via NNW
low level flow should keep most places dry. Seasonably strong
high pressure dome migrates eastward Thursday night into early
Friday morning which will support the drying trend through late
week or the end of May. Temperatures will be seasonably cool for
this time of year with the largest departures from climo (-5 to
10F) Thursday-Thursday night. Min temps could dip into the upper
30s in the NW mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Below normal temperatures will prevail into late week with
mainly dry conditions. Low temps will bottom Friday night.

A warming trend will set in for late week, with a chance of
showers by the weekend into early next weekend.

The activity looks to be weaker and less widespread in nature
than in recent weeks, as the airmass will be much cooler and
less humid than in recent days.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread VFR conds have been observed as of 05Z Tuesday and
expect this trend to continue overnight outside of the western
highlands with high (> 80%) confidence.

The main concern overnight will be lower cigs across the
western highlands (BFD/JST) and the potential for an isolated
shower across NW PA (BFD). The bulk of recent guidance is in
agreement that MVFR restrictions will prevail at BFD for a
majority of the TAF period with the main disagreement on how
cigs resolve in the 06Z-07Z Tuesday timeframe. At JST, generally
expect cigs to stay above MVFR thresholds for the majority of
the overnight period with breezy winds and some low-level dry
air outlined on model soundings but bounces towards high-end
MVFR conds cannot be ruled out, especially between 06-09Z Tue.

Scattered showers are expected during the morning and afternoon
hours with highest confidence in SHRA at airfields across NW
PA. This TAF package outlines best timing for SHRA at BFD/JST
while keeping VCSH across AOO/UNV/IPT where confidence on any
rainfall making it to the airfields are slightly lower due to
low-level dry air in recent model soundings. Restrictions look
more likely tomorrow night, especially in areas where SHRA does
manage to fall, thus have started to trend conds downward at
BFD/JST after 03Z Wednesday despite low-to-moderate (30-40%)
confidence at this time.

Outlook...

Wed...Brief restrictions are possible in scattered showers, but
much of the time should be VFR.

Thu-Sat...Predominantly VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Martin
AVIATION...NPB