Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
397 FNUS28 KWNS 222144 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Friday - Southwest... A large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, while a related belt of moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow overspreads a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. This will promote a deepening surface low over the southern Great Basin, with a tightening pressure gradient across the Southwest. These factors will yield strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across much of AZ and NM, with the best chance for several hours of critical conditions over northeast AZ and northwest NM -- where fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southwest and southern High Plains... As the large-scale trough continues eastward across the western CONUS, a strong midlevel jet streak will cross the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will result in a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a sharpening dryline extending southward over the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support an expansive area of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across NM into west TX. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels over much of the area, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Strong midlevel westerly flow trailing the aforementioned trough will persist across NM on Day 5/Sunday, where warm/dry conditions will persist. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, before winds decrease across the region through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$