832
ACUS48 KWNS 160902
SWOD48
SPC AC 160900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range has come into better agreement regarding the
progression of a low-amplitude, lead shortwave trough that is
expected to progress eastward into the central Plains on D4/Sunday,
ahead of a deeper shortwave trough expected to move through the
northern Rockies/northern High Plains. Low-level moisture advection
across the Plains is expected to bring mid 60s dewpoints into KS,
with lower 60s dewpoints likely reaching NE. Steep mid-level lapse
rates are anticipated atop this low-level moisture, contributing to
moderate/strong buoyancy across much of the central Plains during
the afternoon. Low-level convergence along the dryline combined with
strengthening large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching
shortwave is expected to result in convective initiation. Deep-layer
vertical shear will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of
all severe hazards.

Additional severe appears possible across the central Plains on
D5/Monday as a cold front pushes eastward/southeastward across the
Upper MS Valley and central Plains. However, uncertainty regarding
the influence of D4/Sunday`s thunderstorms as well as a more neutral
large-scale environment preclude introducing a 15% area with this
outlook.

This cold front is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward on
D6/Tuesday, likely progressing through OK and into TX as well as
through much of the Mid MS Valley. Thunderstorms are possible ahead
of this front, with environmental conditions appearing favorable for
severe over a large area from TX through the Mid MS Valley. However,
most of guidance has only come into agreement regarding this
scenario on the most recent runs. Additionally, timing differences
within the guidance make it difficult to assess where the most
favorable areas for severe will be. These factors result in
predictability limitations, with uncertainty too great to delineate
any outlook area.

Another shortwave trough may enter the central/southern Plains on
D8/Thursday, but guidance remains varied on the strength and timing
of this wave.

..Mosier.. 05/16/2024