021
ACUS48 KWNS 240902
SWOD48
SPC AC 240900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models suggest that large-scale flow will become more
amplified across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific
into North America late this weekend into at least the middle of
next week.  This is forecast to include building mid-level ridging
inland of the Pacific coast, then across and east of the northern
Rockies by Wednesday, in advance of inland progressing large-scale
mid-level troughing.  Downstream of this regime, there may be some
further consolidation of mid-level troughing east of the upper
Mississippi Valley through the northern and middle Atlantic
Seaboard, before one embedded perturbation possibly contributes to
cyclogenesis and an evolving cut-off low offshore of the northern
Mid Atlantic coast by late next week.

As a significant initial cyclone migrates northeast of the Upper
Great Lakes region on Memorial Day, there is some potential for
moistening, destabilization and increasing shear within its warm
sector to support at least some risk for severe thunderstorm
development across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic.
However, the stabilizing influence of potentially extensive
convection and convective outflow upstream during preceding days is
a possible complicating factor, so less than 15 percent
probabilities will be maintained for now due to low predictability.

Thereafter, into the middle to latter portion of next week, strong
potential instability will become confined to the Gulf Coast
initially, then mainly across the plains immediately to the east of
the Rockies.  While the risk for severe weather may not be
negligible, it currently appears that this may remain isolated to
widely scattered in nature.

..Kerr.. 05/24/2024