202
FXUS63 KDDC 261501
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1001 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will be dry and quiet through Monday, with a
  beautiful Memorial Day expected.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms, providing beneficial
  welcome rainfall, are expected Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected throughout the
short term forecast as high pressure becomes the dominate feature
across western Kansas. The pressure gradient will be tight behind
the departing system today causing gusty northwesterly winds
throughout the afternoon. Winds become light tonight through
tomorrow, generally from a northwesterly direction. As for
temperatures, highs today look to range from around 80 degrees
across west central Kansas to upper 80s across south central Kansas.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s across west central
Kansas to upper 50s across south central Kansas.  Highs tomorrow
look to range from the low 80s along the I-70 corridor to low 90s
across south central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Southeast flow returns Tuesday, allowing moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico to advect northward. Ensemble models then suggests boundary
layer moisture will remain sufficient, with dewpoints at least in
the 50s, to support daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday through Friday. This is not a forecast of 4 days of
rain; rather, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
across/near SW KS each day Tuesday onward. Forcing for ascent
appears nebulous Tuesday/Wednesday, with broad midlevel ridging,
and at best weak embedded shortwaves. Ensemble dig a modestly
strong longwave trough into the northern Rockies on Thursday.
Models suggest open access to the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday,
allowing a strong dryline to establish, with strong southerly
flow up and down the plains, and 60s dewpoints/instability east
of the dryline. Better forcing for support of organized
convection will clearly be north, associated with the northern
jet stream across the northern plains. Nevertheless a few strong
to severe storms will be possible in the afternoon/evening. As
for temperatures, highs will generally be in the 80s with lows
in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1001 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Good to excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF
period. NW winds will be strong through 00z Mon, gusting to near
30 kts. Winds will diminish quickly to light NWly at sunset, and
remain light NWly into Monday. Subsidence is clearing out the
sky currently, and VFR/SKC will continue through 18z Monday and
beyond.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner