Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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359 FXUS63 KDDC 271652 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1152 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through midnight - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through tonight with high pressure being the dominate feature across the area. Winds will be light and variable through this evening with highs ranging from the low 80s along the I-70 corridor with upper 80s elsewhere. There is less than a 20 percent chance of temperatures rising over 90 degrees across south central Kansas. Winds then shift to an easterly direction overnight with increased cloud cover across our western zones. Some light showers or embedded thunderstorms will be possible across far western Kansas after midnight, but no severe weather is expected. Lows tonight will dip into the mid to upper 50s with around 60 degrees across south central Kansas. Cloudiness continues to increase in coverage Tuesday as a weak disturbance moves over the area. Rain chances increase across the remainder of the forecast area as the day progresses. A few rumbles of thunders will be possible but no severe weather is expected. Winds will start out from an easterly direction, then shift to more of a southeasterly direction by the afternoon. Highs tomorrow look to reach into the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Ensemble models continue to bring a chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms to western Kansas through the long term forecast. This is due to an upper level ridge over the Rockies Tuesday to move over the Plains Wednesday into this weekend. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough will dig into the western United States, ejecting shortwaves towards the plains. Moisture in the lower levels will continue to pool across the area during this time frame with continued southeast winds each day. Being the peak of the severe season there could be a few days where severe weather will be possible. Confidence is low on which days will bring the highest risk. Chances of measurable precipitation looks to be the highest across central Kansas with lesser amounts as you head west. As of now, ensembles show over 60 percent chance of 0.42 inches of rain or more across central Kansas Friday. As for temperatures, highs will generally be in the upper 70s into the 80s with lows in the 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 In general we should see VFR flight category and winds under 15 kts for all terminals during the time period. Late tonight (after 09Z) a weak frontal boundary and upper level disturbance could lead to some scattered thunderstorms mainly around DDC and HYS (20-30% chance of storms) between 09-15Z. If storms do form or move in close proximity to the terminals this could lead to cloud ceilings falling into the MVFR category. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42 LONG TERM...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...Tatro