347
FXUS63 KDDC 282233
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
533 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More showers and storms tonight

- More showers and storms tomorrow

- Relatively wet for rest of period

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Updated the short term grids to substantially raise the pops in
the west up as the HRRR has maintained the overall best
convective trends so far...and appears poised to continue the
trend with Colorado supercells congealing into more large
clusters and a line between about 00z (7 pm and late evening
from the KS/CO state line, and weakening in the less favorable
lapse rate environment east of the highway 83 corridor towards
midnight. The most favorable severe weather parameters are
focused in the far two western columns of counties, namely the
LHP (large hail parameter), boundary layer moisture and and
uncapped surface based cape area. Severe Thunderstorm Watch for
the western 6 counties remains in effect through 10 pm CDT/9 PM
MDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A complex of showers and thunderstorms will develop across the greater
region this afternoon and evening. Activity will be scattered in
nature with a hit or miss variety of activity. Rain amounts will
be widely variable with amounts between none and one inch. There
is about 30-40 kt of bulk shear, which could lead to strong to low
end severe storm activity with hail and wind being the main threats.
The main focus on this activity will be relegated to the W and SW
zones where CAPE and bulk shear is maximized. Otherwise, seasonal
lows are expected tonight with values in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
For tomorrow, PWATS will continue to remain above normal with plenty
of moisture in the lower atmosphere. As such, expect another diurnal
round of showers and thunderstorms moving out of Colorado and across
western Kansas. Some marginally severe activity with this second
round cannot be ruled out. Highs tomorrow will actually be quite
pleasant with values within a few degrees of 80F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

The continue summer-like pattern continue through much of the business
week. This will favor seasonably warm temperatures and daily MCS
shower and thunderstorm activity. Will have to watch out for isolated
strong to severe activity each day as plenty of CAPE and marginal
bulk shear will be present for isolated bouts of strong to severe
activity. Hail and wind would be the main threats along with some
heavy rainfall. This activity will continue to remain of the hit
or miss variety, so nailing down specific rainfall amounts is an
exercise in futility. Will have to watch out though for those areas
that are lucky enough to see storms for heavy rainfall through the
next several days. Highs and lows will be relatively close to seasonal
normals with perhaps trending to slightly above normal as we finish
the business week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Scattered supercells in southeast Colorado are posied to enter
sw Kansas after 00 UTC, perhaps bringing severe weather with up
to 2 inch hail and 60-70 mph wind gusts initially, before
weakening as the storms reach the GCK-LBL corridor in the mid
to late evening (03-06Z). A severe risk cant be ruled out at
GCK or LBL, but heavy rain/reduced vsby/gusty outflow winds are
the heavier bet. The rain cooled boundary layer may then add to
stratus development overnight at least in the MVFR category,
developing after about 9z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Russell
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell