Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
792 FXXX12 KWNP 250031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 25 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3679 (S08W86, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for four R1 (Minor) events, the largest of which was an M1.4/1f flare at 24/0706 UTC. The region maintained its complexity as it approached the W limb. A new region of flux was observed rotating around the NE limb. Only minor changes were observed in the remaining spotted regions on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate on 25 May, with a slight chance of X-class flares (R3/Strong) due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3679. A decrease to low level is likely on 26 May as Region 3679 rotates around the W limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to moderate levels over 25-27 May. There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storm due to the potential from Region 3679 over 25 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The IMF of the solar wind remained mildly enhanced. Total magnetic field strength reached 10 nT and the Bz component rotated as far south as -7 nT. Solar wind speeds were mostly between 350-400 km/s. Phi angle was variable through midday, after which it moved into a positive orientation. .Forecast... Enhancements in solar wind parameters are possible over the next three days due to coronal hole influence. Additional enhancements may occur on 26 May due to periphery of a passing CME that left the Sun on 23 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 25-27 May due primarily to potential CH HSS effects.