Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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671 FXUS63 KDLH 242025 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 325 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty conditions in the Arrowhead with scattered showers and rain through the rest of the day. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in northwest Wisconsin yet this afternoon. - Periods of showers and storms last into the start of next week. - Drier conditions arrive mid-next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Short Term: The focus of our weather today can be tied to an occluded low spinning around aimlessly near the intersection of the Dakotas and Minnesota. Earlier today an occluded front moved through the region bringing the rain the region saw this morning. Evidence of it can still be seen across the borderlands of far, far northern Minnesota where a banded line of heavier radar reflectivities is mainly moving into northwest Ontario. Behind this, there is a small lull in precipitation until you get to a line stretching from the Brainerd Lakes Region into the head of the Lake and into northwest Wisconsin where some light precipitation has started up again. This should move off to the northeast through the rest of the day. Later this afternoon, we could see some clearing appear south of the line I mentioned earlier allowing for up to 1000 joules of MUCAPE to develop. With up to 40kts of Bulk Shear tied to an upper jet impinging into the Northern Great Lakes, we could see small hail around the size of a dime, gusty winds to 40 mph, and quick downpours in some of the stronger cores. These storms should die off as we head towards sunset with a cooling boundary layer reducing the instability. Besides the rain, another large concern we will have through this evening will be the gusty conditions tied to a tight pressure gradient from the 992mb low pressure just off to our west. A Wind Advisory is in effect until 8 PM tonight for the Arrowhead of northeast Minnesota to account for strong southeasterly winds coming off of the lake. As it stands right now winds will be sustained in the 15-25 mph range with gusts in the 30-40 mph range through early this evening. Extended Range: Drier conditions will be with us to start Saturday with the storm system from Friday moving into Canada and leaving the Northland behind. However, as we head into Saturday afternoon and especially evening, chances for showers increase along the southern tier of counties. Isentropic advection from the south will ignite scattered showers and storms through the evening and into early Sunday morning. Another quick moving storm system south of the region on Sunday will create the next shot for rain Sunday afternoon as it moves northeastward through the Great Lakes. Tuesday will see another trough move through the area bringing with it unsettled conditions with a chance for rain. Drier weather finally sets up Wednesday onwards with a ridge building across the Plains bringing us drier conditions to close out the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A warm front lifting northward this afternoon bringing a line of moderate rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to far northern Minnesota over the next two hours. IFR ceilings trail in behind the warm front with drizzle and rain showers producing MVFR visibility. Over in northwest Wisconsin later this afternoon, there remain indications for a few stronger thunderstorms to fire near HYR lasting into 01Z Saturday. Kept the thunderstorm mention to only HYR for now due to confidence on the storm general locations, but DLH and BRD may have to introduce those in subsequent amendments. East-southeast winds through 00Z Saturday shift southwesterly and then westerly behind a passing cold front from 00-06Z this evening. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Ongoing gale-force east-northeast winds gusting to 40 knots persist through early this evening. The ongoing Gale Warnings will very likely need to be replaced with Small Craft Advisories after they expire at 7 PM. Winds shift westerly late tonight and persist Saturday, gusting to 25 knots at times. Lingering elevated swell across all of the western waters into Saturday keeps conditions hazardous for small craft into Saturday evening. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ011-012- 019>021. Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ121-148. Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>145-150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ146-147. && $$ UPDATE...NLy DISCUSSION...NLy/KP AVIATION...NLy MARINE...NLy