Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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794 FXUS63 KDLH 290527 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1227 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms through sunset tonight. Severe weather is not expected. - Dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. - Frost Advisory generally north of US Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota tonight. Additional frost is possible Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, with the best chances in parts of the Arrowhead of Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. - Rain and thunderstorm chances return Thursday night into Friday, with a more active weather pattern continuing into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Diurnally driven rain showers and thunderstorms will continue through sunset tonight across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin underneath a cold core aloft with the upper level low. Given modest instability and weak deep layer shear, severe weather is not expected. Overnight, with clear skies and light winds frost will once again be a concern for northeast Minnesota generally north of US Highway 2 with low temperatures in the mid 30s by Wednesday morning. A Frost Advisory is in effect for the aforementioned areas for late tonight into early Wednesday morning. As surface high pressure departs Wednesday night, one more night of frost will be possible (30-50% chance) for the Arrowhead of Minnesota and across portions of northwest Wisconsin. For Wednesday and Thursday shortwave upper level ridging will be in place across the region. This will lead to a break from rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will also warm in return flow with departing surface high pressure with widespread high temperatures in the 70s by Thursday away from Lake Superior, with cooler values in the mid 50s to the lower 60s near the Lake. A weak cold front is forecast to propagate across the Northland Thursday evening and night. This will mark the return to a more active weather period for rain showers and thunderstorms that will continue into the weekend and early next week with multiple waves embedded in zonal flow. Regarding the potential for severe thunderstorms as we enter June, moisture advection does increase from the Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday supporting greater buoyancy into the Upper Midwest. CSU Machine Learning Severe Probabilities do signal a non-zero threat for severe weather Sunday and Monday for the Northland, and will watch the trends over the coming days. It will also be warming up this weekend and into next week, especially away from Lake Superior, with widespread high temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s, seasonable for early June under zonal flow. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Calm to light and variable winds persist through the night as high pressure moves overhead. Given mainly clear skies and light winds, any locations that saw rain today could see some patchy fog development tonight into the early morning. In fact, some patchy MVFR fog has begun to develop in parts of north-central MN already, including KHIB. Also included some overnight fog mention at KHYR tonight. There is a 20% for patchy IFR visibility in fog tonight at KDLH, KHIB, and KHYR, but have held off on this lower visibility mention in the TAFs for now. Will continue to monitor trends throughout the night and make amendments as needed. Outside of the fog, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with clear to mostly clear skies, aside from a few diurnal cumulus later this morning into early afternoon and some clouds also moving into the South Shore portions of NW WI from Lake Superior in the morning. Winds turn light out of the southeast in NE MN and east in NW WI during the daylight hours today. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Scattered rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue through sunset. There is a 30-40% chance for fog formation tonight into Wednesday morning with surface high pressure, and trends will be monitored through the evening. Winds will be northerly tonight around 5kts, becoming generally easterly on Wednesday around 5kts, although locally higher around 10kts from the northeast from Two Harbors, to the Twin Ports to Port Wing. Waves will be 1 foot or less away from thunderstorms through Wednesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012-018- 019-021-026. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PA AVIATION...Rothstein MARINE...PA