587
FXUS63 KDLH 221130
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
630 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers continue into today. Some in our southern area
  could see additional storms this afternoon.

- Short dry period before rain chances return Thursday afternoon
  and linger into the weekend and next week.

- Finally may see dry conditions by mid week next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Today:

The low bringing us light to moderate rainfall is making its way
northeast through the Northland. Possible clearing across the
southern portions across the CWA will lead to increased
instability and low level lapse rates that will lead to more
convection over those who see clearing. Some of the more robust
soundings show the possibility for some small hail and strong
winds from dry microbursts. With weak wind shear, however, these
storms will be disorganized and short-lived. All precipitation
is expected to end tonight.

Thursday/Weekend System:

Our dry period will be short lived, as both global models hint
at chances, albeit slight, for more light rain starting as early
as Thursday afternoon due to WAA from the south ahead of this
weekend`s system. There is still discrepancy in the models on
when these rain showers and thunderstorms will reach the western
portions of our area, but chances are increasing that the
Northland will see rain starting Thursday evening. In addition,
increase in instability and low level lapse rates, as well as
0-6km shear around 30 kts, some storms could be strong to severe
in the Brainerd Lakes region. Main threats will be hail up to an
inch and damaging winds from dry microbursts.

The main system will reach us Friday morning, and looks like it
could be another soaker. PWATs are not nearly as high for this
system but will still have PWATs an inch or more across most of
our area. There is a likely chance (70%) that most of the
Northland will see another half inch, especially areas in north
central Minnesota. However, if the track of this system
deviates, areas where the highest rainfall is expected will also
change. The system should exit into Canada throughout the day
Saturday.

Sunday-Next Week:

A deeper trough in the Mountain West will develop a surface low
Sunday that will likely take a more southern track than the
previous systems. However, ensembles are all over the board
with the placement of this low, and this will determine whether
we get another round of rain showers into early next week in the
northern quadrant of the low.

Mid next week, the Upper Midwest breathes a sigh if relief as we
may have a full day`s dry weather as a ridge moves over the
Northern Plains. This should be short-lived, however as an
active pattern resumes for the late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Conditions are slowly improving this morning, with a few sites
already reaching MVFR. Kept HIB and HYR at IFR for a couple more
hours since they have been fluctuating in recent observations.
If BRD manages to have some clearing today, some general
thunderstorms could form near the terminal. Went with VCTS for
the general time frame that storms are possible. All sites are
expected to be back to VFR by later this evening.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Winds have decreased over western Lake Superior as the low
pressure system moves over and winds turn to the southwest.
However, winds will increase once again on the back side of the
low and gales will return for all near shore waters. Winds will
start to decrease tonight, but will remain hazardous to small
craft into Thursday. As numerous systems move over the Upper
Midwest the remainder of the week and into next week, there will
be more chances for conditions hazardous to small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ020-021.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-
     147-148.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-147-148.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>143.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>146-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML