Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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506 FXUS63 KDLH 291144 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 644 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .UPDATE... Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 The Frost Advisory will expire at 7 AM as temperatures are quickly warming into the low 40s early this morning and the frost threat for this morning has ended. Low visibilities in patchy dense fog over portions of northeastern Minnesota is also beginning to quickly improve, with fog expected to dissipate within the next hour or so. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog early this morning, mainly from central MN into the Iron Range and along portions of the South Shore. Visibilities could dip below 1 mile at times. - Frost Advisory along and north of the Iron Range through shortly after sunrise this morning. Additional frost is possible (30-40% chance) again tonight into early Thursday morning, with the best chances in parts of the Arrowhead of Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. - Dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. - Rain and thunderstorm chances return Thursday evening into Friday, with a more active weather pattern continuing into the early to middle part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Today: High pressure in the region and a shortwave upper-level ridge have led to clear to mostly clear skies and light winds across the Northland. This has led to a favorable radiational cooling set-up. As a result, areas of fog have begun developing from central MN into the Iron Range and across portions of the South Shore. Visibilities will dip as low as 1/2 to 1/4 mile at times until the fog begins to burn off shortly after sunrise, but widespread dense fog is not expected. The clear skies and light winds are also expected to lead to temperatures in the Iron Range into far northern Minnesota to briefly dip into the mid-30s from early morning until shortly after sunrise today where a Frost Advisory is in effect through 7 AM. After the early morning, the remainder of Wednesday will be quiet and pleasant. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected today, aside from a few fair weather cumulus from late morning into the afternoon. Light southeast to east winds and high temperatures in the mid-60s to low 70s are in store for most, though slightly cooler highs are expected for locations near Lake Superior. Tonight: Clear skies and light winds again tonight into early Thursday morning could lead to some areas of patchy frost in parts of the Arrowhead and NW WI as temperatures there dip into the mid-upper 30s. Low temperatures outside of these locations should be slightly warmer in the low to mid 40s. Thursday: Most of Thursday will be dry, as well. Increasing winds out of the south will begin across north-central MN tonight and then spread across most of the Northland on Thursday with gusts over 20 mph on daytime Thursday for most locations aside from north- central WI. High temperatures warm into the 70s (cooler near Lake Superior) due to southerly return flow on the back side of the departing high pressure to our east. Thursday Evening - Friday: A weak cold front associated with a surface and upper-level low over northern Saskatchewan will slowly moves southeast across the Northland from Thursday evening through Friday. The band of precipitation will be relatively narrow along and just ahead of the front in a small region of 1-1.25" PWATs (80-90th percentile of climatology for late May) advecting into the Northland. Limited instability and generally weak shear should keep precipitation as mainly showers with a few embedded thunderstorms, with no severe weather expected. Rainfall amounts don`t look too substantial, mainly ranging from 0.2-0.7", with the highest amounts in the Brainerd Lakes to NW WI. Some localized higher amounts will be possible for locations that get thunderstorms. This Weekend into Next Week: A more active weather pattern with rain showers and thunderstorms arrives this weekend into early/mid-next week as a more zonal flow pattern sets up aloft with embedded shortwaves periodically moving through the Northland. There is a low-end signal for severe weather potential in the Sunday into Monday timeframe as a better fetch of Gulf moisture leads to increased instability in the Northland vicinity with what looks as potentially favorable bulk shear for organized storms (around 40 knots 0-6km shear). There will still likely be changes to the forecast regarding this Sunday-Monday system, and effects on moisture, shear, and forcing as a result, so forecast trends will continue to be monitored closely. This period will also be highlighted by a warmer pattern with daily high temperatures across the region in the mid-70s to low-80s, but slightly cooler near Lake Superior). && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Still some localized pockets of LIFR to VLIFR visibilities in fog over parts of central Minnesota into the Iron Range, but area webcameras and observations are beginning to show rapid improvement in visibilities as the sun comes up. Have a brief period of lower visibilities for KBRD to start the TAF period, but conditions quickly improve there as well. Expect VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period with skies becoming mostly sunny. A few diurnal cumulus develop later this morning into mid afternoon. Calm to light northeasterly winds early this morning turn southeasterly over Minnesota and easterly in NW WI. A few gusts up to 10-15 knots are possible in north-central and NE MN this afternoon, and then begin to increase again tonight for KINL and KBRD as the surface pressure gradient begins to increase behind departing high pressure. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Some patchy fog has formed along portions of the South Shore early this morning as surface high pressure sits across the region, but widespread dense fog is not expected. Expect this fog to dissipate within a few hours after sunrise. Light northerly winds early this morning turn more northeasterly to easterly today at around 5 knots for most aside from slightly higher in the southwest arm of the lake due to funneling of winds. Expect daytime winds around 10 knots from Two Harbors to the Twin Ports to Port Wing. Waves will be at or less than 1 foot. Light winds return again tonight. Thursday will see winds turn slightly stronger out of the east to northeast as the high pressure departs to our east. Daytime winds of 10 knots with gusts up to 15 knots are expected, though funneling in the southwest arm could push gusts locally up to 20 knots. Waves remain less than 2 feet. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012-018- 019. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Rothstein DISCUSSION...Rothstein AVIATION...Rothstein MARINE...Rothstein