738
FXUS63 KDLH 271942
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
242 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers continue through the afternoon, moving east
  through sunset. Thunder may be possible (20-30%) south of
  Brainerd to Hayward line. No severe weather is anticipated.

- Additional showers and a few thunderstorms possible tomorrow
  (20- 40%).

- Quiet weather for Wednesday and Thursday with rain chances
  returning Thursday night.

- Patchy frost is possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
  Best chances will be across northern MN for Wed morning and NW
  WI for Thursday morning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Light rain showers are ongoing across the Northland, and are likely
more of nuisance showers for those outside trying to enjoy
their cloudy Memorial Day. Parts of SW MN have seen some
clearing today providing for some lightning and little better
convective environment. As the surface low pushes SE this
evening, some of that better instability may skirt across our
southern border, roughly along a Brainerd to Hayward line,
where a few claps of thunder may be heard. Otherwise, rain
shower chances continue to push E/SE through the evening and
into NW WI after midnight.

Tuesday`s high temperatures will be cooler, albeit still in the
60s, behind today`s system. A secondary shortwave will drop
into the region from Manitoba bringing additional rain chances.
With plenty of clouds and similar convective parameters as today
(low CAPE, low sheer), scattered airmass showers and maybe an
occasional storm will be possible across the area.

High pressure builds into the area Wednesday and Thursday
allowing high temperatures to rise back to near or just above
seasonal average, along with a short period of quiet weather.
Mostly clear skies will allow morning temperatures to drop
bringing patchy frost concerns across northern MN for Wed
morning and NW WI for Thursday morning.

Thursday night rain chances return as a troughing sets up in
the Plains setting up an unsettled pattern that will last
through the weekend. High temperatures stay right around
seasonal average through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Main aviation concern are rain showers moving slowly from west
to east this afternoon. There is a window for thunderstorm
development this afternoon especially if the clouds clear out through
sunset. No severe weather is expected. Main hazards will be
lightning and temporary MVFR visibilities. Wind N/NW less than
10 mph. Rain showers possible again in the morning (~8Z) as a
second upper level wave moves by, mainly affecting KDLH and HKYR.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 746 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Light winds today with minimal wave action. Light northwest
winds persist into Tuesday, although some gusts up to 10 to 15
knots can be expected tonight into Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LR
AVIATION...LR
MARINE...Rothstein