205
FXUS63 KDLH 231754
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1254 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers and thunderstorms will resume this afternoon. A
  few strong thunderstorms are possible in the western Brainerd
  Lakes.

- Another low will bring light rain to the region. Rainfall
  amounts have decreased significantly since the last forecast.

- A few more chances for precipitation this weekend and into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Thursday/Weekend System:

Our dry period this morning will be short lived, as both global
and high res models hint at chances, albeit slight, for more
light rain starting as early as Thursday afternoon due to WAA
from the south ahead of this weekend`s system. In addition,
increase in instability and low level lapse rates, as well as
0-6km shear around 30 kts, some storms could be strong to severe
in the Brainerd Lakes region. Main threats will be hail up to
an inch and damaging winds from dry microbursts.

The main system will reach us Friday morning, and looks like it
could be another soaker. PWATs are not nearly as high for this
system but will still have PWATs an inch or more across most of
our area. The track of the low has shifted west and the
residence time for the heaviest precipitation has shifted west
with it. Therefore, rainfall amounts have decreased. Widespread
quarter to half inch is expected, with higher amounts along the
North Shore and north central Minnesota. Very little
instability with this system will limit thunderstorm formation,
but a few embedded storms are not out of the question. The
system should exit into Canada throughout the day Saturday.

Sunday-Next Week:

A deeper trough in the Mountain West will develop a surface low
Sunday that will likely take a more southern track than the
previous systems. However, ensembles are all over the board
with the placement of this low, and this will determine whether
we get another round of rain showers into early next week in the
northern quadrant of the low.

Mid next week, the Upper Midwest breathes a sigh if relief as we
may have a full day`s dry weather as a ridge moves over the
Northern Plains. This should be short-lived, however as an
active pattern resumes for the late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A few sporadic showers are moving through north-central
Minnesota at the moment, and will affect the vicinity of KINL
and perhaps HIB to a lesser extent for the first half of the
afternoon. Then, showers and storms developing over the eastern
Dakotas mid-afternoon will spread into portions of central
Minnesota very late this afternoon and evening. Have included
VCTS mention at KBRD as it looks as though storms should be
weakening in coverage/intensity as they move into the Brainerd
Lakes region. Showers and a few embedded storms spread across
much of north-central and northeast Minnesota later this evening
into tonight, with showers then moving east across the area
Friday morning and afternoon along and ahead of a cold front
associated with the approaching low pressure system.

Winds begin to quickly ramp up out of the east tonight with
gusts increasing to 20-30 knots on Friday morning, then shift
more southeasterly late Friday morning ahead of the approaching
cold front. Expect some LLWS spreading in from west to east late
tonight into Friday, as well.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Winds will decrease throughout the morning along the North Shore
and waves have decreased as well, so the Small Craft Advisory
has been cancelled. Winds will increase again however this
evening and remain gusty through Friday. Occasional gales are
possible along the North Shore, but confidence is not high
enough to issue a gale headline. Gale potential will continue to
be monitored today.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...KML