224
FXUS63 KDLH 230321
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1021 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

The Wind Advisory has expired as wind gusts slowly weaken with
the loss of daytime heating and a weakening pressure gradient
associated with a departing low pressure to our northeast. Winds
become light overnight for all but the tip of the Arrowhead,
where gusts of 20-30 mph are still expected for much of the
overnight hours into Thursday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and clouds slowly exit our area through the afternoon
  with gusty winds being felt near the lake with a Wind
  Advisory in place till this evening

- Low chance of storms  tomorrow ahead of a more widespread
  rain maker arriving early Friday Morning

- Cooler and drier pattern takes hold starting this weekend and
  continuing into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Short Term:

As a sub 990mb low pressure system moves eastward across
Northern Ontario, we are still feeling some lingering effects
of it in our neck of the woods. Some weak rain showers and
drizzle is hanging around NE Minnesota especially closer to the
Canadian Border. Furthermore, due to a tight pressure gradient
in the area, winds have been quite gusty. Weve had multiple
gusts >40mph for areas surrounding Lake Superior. As a result, a
Wind Advisory has been issued for these areas to accommodate
these gusty conditions. As the low treks further NE through
today, both the precipitation chances and wind gusts will drop.
One more thing to note for this afternoon for areas further
southwest from the Brainerd Lakes region stretching into
Sandstone and onto Hayward has a chance (20-30%) of showers and
a possible thunderstorm this afternoon and into the evening.
While no major impacts are expected out of them, some small hail
and stronger gusts (up to 40mph) could be seen in the stronger
cores. With diurnal help, these storms should die off later this
evening. Though tonight and into tomorrow, a cold front moving
down from Canada will become stationary in an E/W orientation
somewhere across the central portion of our CWA. There exists
the potential for some patchy frost across Northern Minnesota
with the best chances closest to the International Border where
temperatures will be flirting with the freezing mark.

Heading into tomorrow, soundings suggest the potential for
showers and a few storms to develop along the boundary later
Thursday afternoon. With upwards of 500-1000 joules of MUCAPE
and 25-30kts of shear some organized convection could present
the possibility of hail and/or gusty winds. It should be noted
that CAMs arent the most enthusiastic on these storms firing so
its chances hedge on the lower side (20-30%) of these storms
even firing in the first place. Later on Thursday and into
Friday, storms that developed earlier on Thursday across the
Dakotas in association with a shortwave trough will finally be
reaching the far western edges of our CWA. This will likely be
in a linear form with gusty winds being the biggest threat as
they move eastward with time. As the low pressure system
continues eastward Friday we should expect scattered showers and
even a few rumbles of thunder as the system moves across our
CWA. NBM is highlighting another 0.4-0.7 of rain into Saturday
morning which could exacerbate any pre-existing hydrological
concerns from the system over the past few days.

Extended Range:

Following this, the synoptic pattern will flip with a ridge
likely setting up over the Western CONUS and troughing in the
vicinity of the Great Lakes. Within the upper level flow out of
the northwest, ensembles are highlighting cooler and drier
conditions through the middle of next week where models diverge
on the future synoptic pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Low pressure centered just north of Thunder Bay will continue to
move northeastward away from our area. Scattered showers over
parts of the area, mainly in northern/northeastern Minnesota,
will continue to diminish in coverage throughout the evening as
this low departs. While some MVFR ceilings are present across
far northern Minnesota, including KINL, ceilings there will
also improve to VFR by late this evening. Winds quickly become
light this evening and variable overnight as a weak surface
front settles into the Northland.

VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period aside from
some low chances (20-30%) for some isolated to widely scattered
shower/thunderstorm development along the front during the
afternoon. Have included a PROB30 mention at KBRD where a couple
high-res models have a slightly more coherent signal for this
convection to develop. Otherwise, kept precipitation mention out
of the remainder of the TAF sites due to confidence being too
low in seeing convection, let alone if it develops at all.
Better shower and thunderstorm chances move in from the west
Thursday evening and night.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect until early overnight
for Port Wing to the Outer Apostle Islands and continue tonight
from Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage. Winds gradually weaken
from southwest to northeast tonight, but hang on longer along
portions of the North Shore.

A period of lighter winds, mostly at or below 15 knots, will develop
Thursday but this will be short-lived as another area of low
pressure moves toward the region. Easterly winds will ramp up
Thursday night into Friday with gale force gusts possible (30-60%)
Friday, highest in the Twin Ports area. There will be a chance for
thunderstorms Friday into Friday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ140-141.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ142-146-
     147-150.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rothstein
DISCUSSION...Melde/KP
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein