Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
898
FNUS73 KDLH 232253
FWSDLH
Spot Forecast for BWCA SAR...St. Louis County EM
National Weather Service Duluth MN
553 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 CDT on May 23.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.
.DISCUSSION...
Search site and General Ely Forecast -
Wind direction may be variable for the next 1 to 2 hours,
switching from northwest to easterly, but with light speeds less
than 10 mph. East winds will persist tonight, then become
southeasterly Friday with speeds increasing to around 10-20 mph
and gusting to 30 mph. Winds decrease a bit Friday night and
become southerly.
Rain shower chances move in later tonight as early as 11 PM (30%
chance). Thunder can`t be ruled out, but chances are very low
(~5). Rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch tonight. A gap
in showers is possible Friday morning, then additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected (90% chance) starting by about 10 AM
Friday morning, lingering through Friday afternoon, and ending
Friday evening. Rainfall amounts around a tenth to two tenths with
the lesser amounts around Ely and higher amounts at the search
site. Slightly higher amounts approaching 0.3" can`t be ruled out
at the search site.
Ely Visibility and Ceilings -
Visibility greater than 6 miles (VFR) is expected through around
noon Friday, though there is a low chance (~5%) that there could
be brief 5 mile visibilities in passing showers around midnight
tonight. Visibility is expected to fall to 2 to 4 miles at times
through Friday afternoon as showers and thunderstorms pass over
the airport. Ceilings are expected to remain around 5000 ft (VFR) or
higher through Friday morning, then ceilings lower to around 1500
to 2500 ft (MVFR) mid-Friday morning into early afternoon.
Ceilings are expected to fall as low as 500 to 1000 ft (IFR) after
around 4 or 5 PM Friday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms
passing over the terminal.
To obtain an official pre-flight weather briefing call
1-800-992-7433.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Chance of thunder...5 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming east 6 to 9 mph in the
late evening and overnight.
Ceiling (kft).......19 increasing to 22 late in the evening, then
decreasing to 18 late in the evening increasing
to 20 overnight decreasing to 16 decreasing to
13 after 3 am decreasing to 8.4 increasing to
12 early in the morning.
Visibility (sm).....10.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
Weather cov..... SCH CH CH CH CH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 15 20 30 30 30 30 20 20
Chc of thdr (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............61 60 57 54 51 48 48 46 45 43 42 42
Surface wnd dir.NW N NE NE E E E E E E E E
Surface wnd spd.5 4 3 3 4 4 4 6 7 8 9 9
Surface wnd gst.10 8 9 9 9 10 12 13 14 16 17 18
Ceiling (kft)...19 21 19 21 22 18 20 22 16 13 8.4 12
Visibility (sm).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers late in the morning. Chance of
rain showers late in the morning, then rain
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Chance of thunder...5 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Southeast winds 9 to 18 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph
increasing to 30 mph late in the afternoon.
Ceiling (kft).......19 increasing to 23 early in the morning, then
decreasing to 7.5 late in the morning
decreasing to 2.8 early in the afternoon
decreasing to 1.3 decreasing to 0.9 late in the
afternoon decreasing to 0.8.
Visibility (sm).....9 decreasing to 2.50.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
Weather cov..... S CHC CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 20 40 80 90
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 10 10
Surface wind....E 9 E 11 E 14 SE 17 SE 17 SE 18
Surface wnd gst.20 23 26 28 29 30
Ceiling (kft)...19 24 23 2.8 1.6 0.9
Visibility (sm).10 10 10 7 3 2.5
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
thunderstorms early in the evening. Rain
showers in the evening, then chance of rain
showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Chance of thunder...5 percent.
Surface winds (mph).South winds 10 to 17 mph with gusts to around
28 mph shifting to the west 7 to 9 mph
overnight.
Ceiling (kft).......0.8 decreasing to 0.7 early in the evening,
then decreasing to 0.6 late in the evening
increasing to 1.0 late in the evening
decreasing to 0.7 decreasing to 0.6 overnight
increasing to 0.7 increasing to 1.2 overnight
increasing to 1.9 increasing to 2.7 after 3 am.
Visibility (sm).....3 increasing to 9.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).90 80 80 30
Chc of thdr (%).10 M M M
Surface wind....SE 17G28 S 12G24 SW 9G18 W 7G16
Ceiling (kft)...0.8 0.6 0.6 1.9
Visibility (sm).3 9 10 10
$$
Forecaster...Josh
Requested by...Alex Rice
Type of request...SAR
.TAG 2414880.2/DLH
.DELDT 05/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL 7310@slcrs.org,Emergency@slcrs.org,JohnsonD@stlouiscountymn.gov,7111@slcrs.org,BrinkmanJ@stlouiscountymn.gov,7101@slcrs.org,7337@slcrs.org,kelvin.mccuskey@state.mn.us,7296@slcrs.org