518
FXUS63 KDMX 290752
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
252 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gorgeous, quiet Wednesday

- Precipitation chances return west Thursday, though severe
  chances remain low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

High pressure has settled across the area, allowing for light wind
and cloud free skies early this morning. High pressure will remain
in place through the day, making for an absolutely gorgeous
Wednesday. Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the 70s with
light winds and only diurnal cu this afternoon.  Tranquil conditions
continue through tonight with increasing wind in parts of western
Iowa as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next approaching
system.

By Thursday a wave passing across the Dakotas will move towards the
upper midwest, beginning to phase with the southern stream. Recent
model runs have trended towards a cut-off low scenario within the
southern stream, reducing moisture transport into the area. A look
at ensembles shows a nearly even split on dry solutions versus those
production precipitation across the area. In either case, the
cut-off low will slow the overall pattern down, so have kept
precipitation chances west of I-35 until Friday. This will of
course need fine tuning as we get further into the CAM window
today and tonight.

Temperatures will warm through the 80s this weekend and early
next week with warm air advection increasing into the area.
Additional precipitation chances into the weekend and next week
as a couple wave move through zonal flow. Model solutions begin
to diverge with placement and timing of these systems so
widespread low pops exist through the extended until better
timing information is available from model consensus.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the period at the terminals.
FEW to SCT cumulus will develop from southeast Iowa into
central Iowa in the late morning and early afternoon before
dissipating early in the evening. Winds light from the north
tonight will become from the east and southeast by Wednesday
evening.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Ansorge