055
FXUS63 KDMX 221956
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
Issued by National Weather Service North Platte NE
256 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief reprieve from showers and thunderstorms tonight and
  tomorrow afternoon.

- Thunderstorm chances return Thursday evening through Friday
  evening.

- Another brief dry period on Saturday, before chances of
  showers and thunderstorms through the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

 >> Brief quiet period

Showers and thunderstorms from earlier today have moved out of
the area. An area of high pressure is settling over north
central Missouri, as a low amplitude upper level ridge moves
across central Iowa. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight
through tomorrow afternoon. Winds become southerly tonight, and
remain generally calm, around 5 to 10 miles per hour. Winds will
again pick up tomorrow afternoon, generally between 10 to 15
miles per hour, with a few gusts up to 20 miles per hour ahead
of an approaching low pressure system moving across South
Dakota.

 >> Another round of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday

As the low pressure system approaches across South Dakota,
a surge of moisture will move across central Iowa, bringing
surface dew points back into the mid to upper 50s. A cold front
sweeps across Nebraska, generating a line of thunderstorms
across central and eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This
line of thunderstorms will move into Iowa in the evening hours.
Current high resolution guidance has a smaller batch of
thunderstorms developing ahead of the main line. Though the
greater severe weather threat appears to be to the east, over
most of Nebraska, the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 5) across the western half of Iowa, with a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across the western most counties in
Iowa. The primary concern for central Iowa at this time appears
to be strong wind gusts and hail with some of the stronger
storms. Storms will continue across the region through Friday
morning. Behind the main line, model guidance suggests the
possibility for some redevelopment on Friday afternoon, so will
keep the mention for thunder in the forecast.

 >> Wet Holiday Weekend

As storms exit the region on Friday evening, another brief
period of high pressure settles in, giving a slight break from
precipitation. A low pressure system ejects off the Rocky
Mountains and quickly traverses the Plains on Saturday.
Most of the morning and afternoon on Saturday should be
relatively dry, however, clouds will begin progressively moving
in from the west. As the low pressure system tracks across
Kansas and northern Missouri, another batch of showers and
thunderstorms moves into the area Saturday night. The low is
expected to stall a bit in speed, keeping rain chances around
Sunday through Monday afternoon. At this time, the threat for
severe weather remains uncertain. The Storm Prediction Center
highlights potential for severe thunderstorms across Missouri,
so will need to keep an eye on how the severe weather outlook
changes. Confidence should increase as models come into better
consistency with the timing of the upper level flow and track of
the surface low over the next few runs.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail the next 24 hrs across
IA. A few fair weather cumulus clouds will be around this
afternoon, with some increase in mid and high level cloudiness
tonight. Winds will be gusty from the west this afternoon. Winds
will decrease and become light south tonight.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Richie
AVIATION...Taylor