217
FXUS63 KDMX 211144
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
644 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms will continue into the morning hours, with the
  potential for an MCS bringing strong winds through the area.
  Heavy rainfall continues to fall over the area.

- Strong storms are then expected through the afternoon hours
  with damaging winds, large hail, and a few strong tornadoes
  being possible. Efficient rainfall may also lead to flash
  flooding concerns, especially in areas primed from the
  overnight storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

As expected, storms have continued to fester through the early
morning hours as our  well-advertised low pressure system continues
to steadily make its way towards the state. Primary impacts with
the overnight convection have been large amounts of rainfall and
strong winds, with sporadic reports of hail. These storms are
expected to remain over the area through most of the morning hours,
as the warm air advection wing continues to slowly push north and a
30 to 40 kt LLJ provides a continual stream of moisture and ascent
overhead.

In addition to storms ongoing over the forecast area, we also
continue to watch the evolution of a potential MCS currently in
central Nebraska that will be making its way towards the state
through the next few hours. High resolution models have struggled to
capture how this feature will evolve, but most agree it will ride
along the warm air advection wing, being fueled by the 45 to 50 kt
LLJ to its south. The differences in guidance are with how it
behaves upon reaching Iowa. Most recent guidance suggests that the
MCS will shoot north along the warm front, ingesting the storms in
its path but also heading into more overturned air where
convection has occurred all night. This solution would somewhat
limit the wind potential of the system, confining it to areas
along the southern edge of the overnight convection where the
better surface instability resides. However, there have been
hints of this MCS staying further south near the outflow
boundary, still rooted to the LLJ and further into the warmer,
untapped air to the south. Should this solution pan out, the
severe wind risk would be much higher as the MCS would stay
within the better surface instability and along the better shear
axis. High resolution guidance is notoriously bad at resolving
nocturnal MCS, so will be watching observations very closely
through the morning hours.

After the morning MCS passes through, all eyes will be on the
surface low pressure system that will be lifting northeast through
the state and dragging the cold front behind it. For our area, most
of the storms today will be initiated along this boundary as it
arrives in our west around 18-19z and quickly progresses east
through the afternoon. These will be fast moving storms, with the
front through our area and already into eastern Iowa by 00z. The
current expectation is for storms to initially begin as discreet
supercells, taking advantage of the 3000+ J/kg of SBCAPE and the 50-
60 kts of 0-6 km shear ahead of the line. However, with shear
vectors oriented roughly parallel to slightly off the boundary,
would expect storms to eventually congeal and grow upscale into a
QLCS type of structure. This will be most likely further east in the
forecast area, with discrete convection expected in the west. All
severe hazards will be possible through the period and with both
storm modes. Of course, with large amounts of instability
present and strong flow aloft, storms will be organized and
capable of producing damaging winds and large hail, with an
emphasis on wind, should the system grow upscale. Likewise, with
200 to 300 m2/s2 of 0-500 m and 0-1 km of SRH there will be
plenty of low level shear for rotating storms and the sub-500 m
LCLs with surface based instability will help with stretching
and tornado production. The limiting factor for tornadoes will
be the northeast storm motions not being completely favorable
for streamwise ingest, but the large amounts of shear present
will still help to mitigate the less favorable storm motions.
Finally, the icing on the cake will be the anomalously high
PWATs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches, making for efficient rainfall
production. Fortunately, fast storm motions and progressive
storms will lessen the flash flood potential for most, however,
areas that have been primed with heavy rainfall overnight will
be susceptible for flash flooding this afternoon. All of this
has warranted a nearly area-wide upgrade to a moderate risk
(level 4 of 5) for severe weather from the storm prediction
center, with the possibility significant hail and wind, as well
as a few strong tornadoes.

Beyond today, things quiet down through the remainder of the week
before we see the return of shower and storm chances on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Busy weather day with multiple rounds of storms likely.
Confidence is lowest in how storms will evolve this morning, but
northern sites (KMCW, KFOD, and KALO) will likely see periods of
rain and occasional thunderstorms for much of the morning, with
expected timing reflected in TAFs. Southern sites will be more
dependent on how a line of storms evolves over the next few
hours. Southern extent has recently been further than expected,
so have included some timing at KDSM for when this passes
through (roughly around 1400 UTC). Lightning, lowered visibility
and strong, variable winds are all possible as these pass.

There may be a brief lull in storms mid-day, especially at
southern sites (KDSM and KOTM) before a more predictable line of
severe storms passes over the area this afternoon. All hazards
are possible with these storms, including damaging winds, large
hail, heavy rainfall and tornadoes. Fortunately, storms will be
moving quickly and should only impact any given site for an
hour or two. Expected timing is reflected in TAFs. Aside from
the storms, strong non-thunderstorm winds are expected to
develop through the day and may continue into the night, even
after storms depart.

With the uncertainty of storm evolution today, amendments will
be needed and issued as necessary to reflect the latest trends
in storms.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for IAZ004>007-015>017-
023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>083-092.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dodson
AVIATION...Dodson