Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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338 FXUS63 KDMX 291748 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1248 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gorgeous, quiet Wednesday - Precipitation chances return west Thursday, though severe chances remain low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 High pressure has settled across the area, allowing for light wind and cloud free skies early this morning. High pressure will remain in place through the day, making for an absolutely gorgeous Wednesday. Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the 70s with light winds and only diurnal cu this afternoon. Tranquil conditions continue through tonight with increasing wind in parts of western Iowa as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next approaching system. By Thursday a wave passing across the Dakotas will move towards the upper midwest, beginning to phase with the southern stream. Recent model runs have trended towards a cut-off low scenario within the southern stream, reducing moisture transport into the area. A look at ensembles shows a nearly even split on dry solutions versus those production precipitation across the area. In either case, the cut-off low will slow the overall pattern down, so have kept precipitation chances west of I-35 until Friday. This will of course need fine tuning as we get further into the CAM window today and tonight. Temperatures will warm through the 80s this weekend and early next week with warm air advection increasing into the area. Additional precipitation chances into the weekend and next week as a couple wave move through zonal flow. Model solutions begin to diverge with placement and timing of these systems so widespread low pops exist through the extended until better timing information is available from model consensus. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions to prevail across all TAF sites through the period. Fair weather cumulus will be most prevalent as you travel east, with FEW/SCT around 5kft. Light and variable winds will give way to SE winds through the day, picking up a bit toward the end of the period with winds around 14G21KTS around northern sites KFOD/KMCW and a bit lighter elsewhere. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff AVIATION...Curtis