Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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825 FXUS63 KDTX 301001 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 601 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather and a gradual warming trend Today through Saturday. - The next chance of rain is late Saturday and Saturday night. && .AVIATION... Expect VFR conditions with just FEW-SCT cu/strato-cu of 6-7kft at times, mainly this morning into parts of the afternoon. Winds will remain light (under 10 knots) and from the north/northeast. For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected during this forecast period. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * None. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 DISCUSSION... Quiet weather to wrap up the month of May as surface high pressure settles across the region. Upper level trough and cold pool is lingering today which helped lows dip down to around 40 (with a few upper 30) early this morning under clear skies and light winds. For today even with the back edge of the thermal trough still working out of the area, heights will be slowly increasing under full sun which will help rebound temps nicely and produce highs around 70, a couple degrees over yesterdays highs. Continued modification of the local airmass Friday as the surface high centers over the Great Lakes but the amplified upper level ridge still holds the thermal ridge axis just to our west. So temps should increase a few more degrees getting us back into the mid/upper 70s. Saturday will start off pleasant as the ridge axis will pass to the east Friday night opening the door for deep layer southwesterly flow into the region. The next chance of rain comes later that afternoon as a decent southern stream mid level wave, getting better organized in latest runs, lifts northeast out of the southern Plains through the Midwest while attempting to phase into the stronger northern stream trough crossing south-central Canada. Currently there isn`t much instability offered in the sounding due to a very moist profile with PWATs exceeding 1.5 inches, but a sharp theta e gradient with the surface low and southern extension of the northern stream trough should offer a good shot at rain across most of the area through the evening and into the overnight. Energetic northern stream and weak southern stream will then offer up a zonal, or low amplitude progressive pattern heading into and through next week. Sunday and Monday may end up dry but the mid week period will provide several opportunities for precipitation with a front moving into the area Tuesday, a stronger wave following on Wednesday, then cold advection Thursday with additional troughs rotating around the low as it moves just east of the area. MARINE... High pressure is firmly in place today, centered over the western Great Lakes, maintaining generally lighter flow (aob 15kts) across the central lakes. The Bay and far southern basin of Huron could push 20kts owing to the longer northerly fetch however subsequent waves are expected to hold sub small craft criteria around the Thumb nearshore waters. Surface high drifts directly over the central Great Lakes Friday into early Saturday maintaining dry conditions and light southerly winds. Next chances for unsettled weather arrive latter half of the day Saturday as low pressure lifting into northern Ontario drags a cold front through the Great Lakes. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....DG DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......KDK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.