791
FNUS73 KDTX 240936
FWSDTX

Spot Forecast for Topico Edge Loop Rx...MIDNR
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
536 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on May 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure holds across the region today.
Temperatures will rise from around 50 this morning into the low 80s
in the afternoon which helps humidity drop down to around 30 percent
on light SE wind. Rain showers become likely tonight with a chance
of thunderstorms into Saturday morning. Dry weather Saturday
afternoon continues into early Sunday until the next round of
showers and unsettled weather arrives later Sunday through Monday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Eye level winds.....East winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Poor (MAX...65).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........17  23  22  29  34  38
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............67  68  69  71  71  70
RH..............48  46  46  45  45  47
EYE LVL WND DIR.E   E   E   E   E   E
EYE LVL WND SPD.6   7   7   8   8   10
EYE LVL WND GST.10  10  10  11  12  13
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISPER....73  75  69  73  61  75

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent)becoming mostly
                    cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers early in the evening. Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms late
                    in the evening, then rain showers likely and
                    chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Eye level winds.....East winds around 10 mph...becoming south
                    around 8 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 13 to 15 mph...becoming southeast 12 to 17
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Poor (MIN...39).

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........38     49     58     72     85     85
WEATHER COV.....       S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............69     67     62     59     58     58
RH..............49     55     60     64     72     78
EYE LVL WND DIR.E      E      E      SE     SE     S
EYE LVL WND SPD.10     10     10     10     8      8
EYE LVL WND GST.14     14     14     14     14     14
MIX HGT (KFT)...600    500    500    500    600    500
HAINES INDEX....5      4      4      4      3      3
SMOKE DISPER....69     60     67     71     63     47

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent)becoming sunny
                    (5-15 percent). Rain showers likely early in
                    the morning. Chance of thunderstorms in the
                    morning. Chance of rain showers early in the
                    morning.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 8 to 10 mph...becoming west 11
                    to 12 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph...becoming west 14 to 16
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Good (MAX...419).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........79        67        39        10
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY    CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    NONE      NONE
TEMP............57        64        70        74
RH..............87        81        65        47
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 8       SW 10     W 11      W 12
EYE LEVEL WIND..14        16        18        19
MIX HGT (FT)....500       1000      2400      3600
HAINES INDEX....3         4         4         5
SMOKE DISPER....48        130       346       482

$$
Forecaster...Kook
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415024.0/DTX
.DELDT 05/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov