534
FNUS73 KDTX 311918
FWSDTX

Spot Forecast for Tobico Trail Loop...MIDNR
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
318 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on June 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure ensures dry and warming conditions today
and most of Saturday, with minimum RH values around 30 percent and
light southern flow across all of southeast Michigan. Rain then
moves in Saturday evening and continues through Sunday morning as a
pair of disturbances track into the lower Michigan.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 8 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 to 6 OR moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Excellent (MAX...637).

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........62  65  69  74  78  82  86
WEATHER COV.....            CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....            RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............69  72  73  73  73  72  72
RH..............47  41  40  40  41  43  45
EYE LVL WND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   S
EYE LVL WND SPD.8   10  10  10  10  10  10
EYE LVL WND GST.14  14  14  17  17  16  14
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 3.4 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.9 3.4
HAINES INDEX....6   6   6   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISPER....310 515 598 728 695 733 436

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 6 to 10 mph...becoming southeast
                    around 6 mph late in the evening,
                    then becoming south overnight...becoming
                    northwest 5 to 6 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Poor (MIN...39).

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........89     90     86     84     85     82
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............69     64     62     60     60     59
RH..............53     71     78     90     92     94
EYE LVL WND DIR.S      S      SE     S      NW     NW
EYE LVL WND SPD.10     7      6      6      6      5
EYE LVL WND GST.14     13     13     12     11     10
MIX HGT (KFT)...2100   600    500    600    700    600
HAINES INDEX....5      4      4      4      3      3
SMOKE DISPER....247    63     51     66     61     50

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent)becoming sunny
                    (15-25 percent). Chance of rain showers early
                    in the morning, then slight chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds around 5 mph...becoming south
                    early in the morning, then becoming southeast
                    5 to 6 mph in the late morning and early
                    afternoon...becoming east around 6 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 10 mph...becoming east around 8
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Fair (MAX...140).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........75        61        47        34
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    NONE
TEMP............59        64        68        69
RH..............95        81        71        63
EYE LEVEL WIND..NW 5      S 5       E 5       E 6
EYE LEVEL WIND..10        10        10        12
MIX HGT (FT)....500       900       1800      1800
HAINES INDEX....3         3         3         3
SMOKE DISPER....39        71        157       137

$$
Forecaster...Cromwell
Requested by...Nate Stearns
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415419.0/DTX
.DELDT 05/31/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL stearnsn@michigan.gov