Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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514 FXUS63 KDVN 301930 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 230 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and dry through much of Friday, with rain chances increasing Friday night into Saturday morning. - Active pattern returns next week, with near-daily chances for showers and storms. Threat for severe weather remains low at the moment. - Temperatures remain above normal, with long term guidance trending below normal by the end of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Shortwave has ejected off of the Rockies this morning, with this wave and associated energy slowly shifting east. This will help push the upper ridge east of the Mississippi River Valley tonight and through tomorrow. Ahead of this, winds will shift southeasterly around H85 late tonight and into tomorrow morning, increasing moisture throughout the area. Bulk of the shortwave energy remains south of our area tomorrow, with stronger bouts of energy working their way into the forecast area by late afternoon/evening Friday. This will allow for precipitation chances to increase into the evening, especially south of Interstate 80. Have opted to push back precipitation onset though, as we will have a lot of dry air to work through. Thus, the best chances for precipitation will be Friday night. Little to no instability will be seen, leaving us with mainly rain, aside from a few isolated rumbles of thunder. With the best forcing in our south, that will be where we see the highest rainfall amounts. Although, the forecast remains less than an inch in those areas. Currently, guidance favors areas along/south of a line from Carthage to Princeton IL for 0.50-1.00" of rain, with the remainder of the forecast area seeing 0.25" or less. Some guidance is hinting at bringing slightly higher amounts north and west, bringing between 0.25-0.50" roughly north to the Quad Cities Area. Confidence is low on that at this time. With gradually increasing moisture tonight, especially in the mid- upper levels, we will see an increase in cloud cover. Thus, a mix of moon and clouds will be seen, with temperatures in the low-mid 50s for most. Tomorrow, we will warm up quite a bit again, but the overall cloud cover may limit surface heating for some. Overall, we are forecasting the mid-upper 70s, but will remain dry until the mid- late PM hours. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 As was mentioned above, rain will continue into Saturday morning, especially for areas south of Interstate 80 and east of the Mississippi River. After this passes, the remainder of the weekend will be dry. Upper level flow will generally go zonal through Sunday and the start of the work week. Although, weak impulses ahead of a potent wave will shift the flow back to northwesterly by the middle of next week. These impulses will bring periods of showers and storms next week, with nearly daily chances for precipitation. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm through the middle of next week, with much of the area in the mid-upper 80s. Fortunately, overall moisture seems to remain low, which should keep the humidity lower. While we will promote daily chances for precipitation, this is not expected to be a wash-out to start the week. Rather, sporadic chances of light-moderate rain and storms. It is too soon to discuss severity, but will continue to monitor for any chance. Mid-late week, we see a bit of a pattern change. We see the upper level flow shift strictly northwesterly again, owing to the deep ridge building over the Rockies. This will lead to cooler temperatures moving in, cooler than what we have seen over the last couple of weeks. CPC currently favors near normal rainfall, with temperatures below normal. Some guidance is more aggressive with the cool air compared to others. This is generally due to the fact that guidance still differs quite a bit on the overall pattern for next week. Thus, will opt to refrain from too many details at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will remain out of the southeast between 10-15 KTs, becoming light after 00z. No sig wx is expected at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 No changes in flood categories on area rivers this morning. Flooding continues on the Wapsipinicon, Iowa, Cedar, and lower portions of the Mississippi River. Major flooding will continue on the Wapsipinicon River near De Witt until the middle of next week. The river will remain between 13.1 and 13.3 feet through Monday. Additional rainfall is forecast Friday night and again early next week, but model trends have been lower with QPF through the next 7 days. Significant changes to the river forecast is not expected in the coming days. The crest on the lower portion of the Iowa River is near Oakville this morning. On the mainstem Mississippi, Minor flooding will continue from New Boston LD 17 downstream to Burlington and also at Gregory Landing. Crests will occur late this weekend and early next week. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel AVIATION...Gunkel HYDROLOGY...Gross