332
FXUS63 KDVN 270820
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
320 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible this afternoon.
  There is a marginal or level 1 out of 5 risk of severe
  thunderstorms this afternoon.

- Quiet weather is forecast for Wednesday and Thursday with high
  temperatures ranging from 70 to 75 degrees.

- Chances of showers and storms return Friday through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

At 2 AM a cold front sits to our south across northern Missouri
with a second cold to our northwest across northern Minnesota
and North Dakota. Low clouds across the area are slowly sliding
to to our east. A northwest breeze has continued across the
area overnight with speeds of 10 to 20 MPH. Temperatures across
the area range from 55 degrees at CID to 60 degrees at Moline.

A vort max is evident on water vapor imagery early this morning
moving into the central Dakotas and is forecast to arrive later
this afternoon into this evening as the Upper Midwest remains
on the western edge of a trough over eastern Canadian and the
northeastern US. This will also drive a cool front across the
area. Temperatures ahead of the front are forecast to be in the
mid 70s with dewpoints in the mid 50s. Despite the drier airmass
most unstable CAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/KG are possible with
30 knots of 0 tp 6 km shear. CAMs are showing the potential for
damaging winds. Given the drier atmosphere, expected isolated
to scattered coverage for storms today. For this reason, the
storm prediction center has much of the area under a marginal
risk of severe storms.

Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east this
evening with clouds lingering across the area north of
Interstate 80. Low temperatures on Tuesday morning will range 50
to 55 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

The long term period begins on Tuesday morning with deep
northwest flow aloft as we continue to sit on the edge of a
deep trough to our east. This will allow another disturbance to
move across the area during the day on Tuesday with scattered
showers and storms possible once again.

Wednesday through Friday morning a ridge of high pressure will
move across the area bringing quiet weather to the area.
Temperatures will be pleasant and range from 70 to 75 degrees.

Temperatures will warm Friday through Sunday as high pressure
moves to the east with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s by
Sunday. A closed 500 MB low is forecast to move across the
southern Canadian Plains late this week into next weekend and
bring several chances for showers and storms with the best
chances (25 to 35%) on Saturday. Dewpoints will remain in the
50s during this period so instability will be somewhat limited.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

MVFR ceilings are lingering at KCID, KDBQ and KMLI at this TAF
issuance. Conditions are forecast to improve to VFR at all TAF
sites by 10 UTC with KDBQ the last to clear. Another storm
system is forecast to move across the area this afternoon
bringing the chance of TSRA to KCID, KDBQ, and KMLI and added a
PROB 30 group at these sites to account for this. MVFR ceilings
and visibilities are possible with the strongest storms. Gusty
northwest winds are expected during the late morning and
afternoon before diminishing after 00 UTC.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Swaths of 1-2 inches of rain occurred overnight and early this
morning in the headwaters and portions of the channels of the
Wapsipinicon, Cedar and Iowa River basins. This will prolong
high water levels and minor to major flooding on these rivers
from the main channels to the confluence of the Cedar and Iowa
Rivers, and Iowa and Wapsipinicon Rivers with the Mississippi
River. This routed water will also lead to further rises on the
mainstem Mississippi River, with many locations nearing action
stage through midweek from Dubuque (DBQI4) down through Muscatine
(MUSI4) while minor flooding is expected in many locations from
Keithsburg (KHBI4) to Gregory Landing (GGYM7). Please refer to
the latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for more details.

The forecast will have chances for sporadic rains over the next
couple of days, but significant rainfall is not expected.
Beyond, it looks to turn more active heading into the first
week of June. The Climate Prediction Center has the area favored
for near normal rainfall June 2-8.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Cousins
HYDROLOGY...McClure