Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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641 FXUS63 KDVN 291048 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 548 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather is forecast today through Thursday with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. - There are several chances for showers and storms Friday night through early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 High pressure sits well to our north across western Ontario and eastern Manitoba. There are clear skies across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri. At 2 AM, temperatures range from 50 degrees at KMXO and KVTI to 55 degrees at KEOK and KBRL. Dewpoints across the area are in the mid to upper 40s. At 500 MB, ridging is forecast to move across the area with the ridge axis moving from along the western High Plains to stretching along a line from western Ontario southward through the Mid Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to sink from western Ontario into Michigan through the period. This will bring tranquil weather to the area over the next 48 hours. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from 70 to 75 degrees with dewpoints in the upper 40s. The only fly in the ointment is that clouds are forecast to develop across the area this afternoon with sunny to partly sunny skies during the afternoon. High temperatures will warm by 5 degrees on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Fast zonal flow is forecast to continue through the long term period. This will bring chances for showers and storms about every 24 to 36 hours. This period will not be a complete washout with periods of dry weather. Global models have slowed the timing of precipitation moving into the area on Friday as high pressure is slow to move into the northeastern US from Michigan. The latest runs of the GFS, Canadian,and ECWMF keep chances for showers and thunderstorms to our west through the daytimes hours on Friday. Chances for showers and storms increase Friday night into Saturday. However the NBM continues to keep chances of showers and storms in the forecast for the day on Friday but think these will gradually diminish today given recent trends in the models. Temperatures will gradually warm on Friday and Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 70s with a warming trend beginning Sunday and continue into Tuesday with high temperatures in the 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 535 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 High pressure is forecast to pass to our north through the TAF period. This will bring quiet weather and VFR conditions to the area through the period. Diurnally driven clouds are forecast to develop today with ceilings around 4 kft. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1057 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Most areas received less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall in the past 24 hours. The exception was right along the Wapsipinicon River, where amounts between a half inch and one inch were reported. The lower portions of the Iowa and Cedar rivers continue to rise with most sites expected to see Minor flooding. The crests will occur within the next 2 days at locations along these rivers. The Wapsi River near Anamosa and De Witt continue to rise with routed flow working its way down from upstream. The river is expected to remain below Moderate flood at Anamosa with a crest of 17.9 feet late Wednesday evening. The Wapsi River near De Witt has reached Major flood stage this morning and will slowly rise the rest of this week to a crest of 13.3 feet early next week. Rainfall will be spotty this afternoon and not anticipated to impact the current forecasts. On the Mississippi, upgraded New Boston to a Flood Warning given increased confidence of the site reaching flood in 3 days due to routed flow. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Cousins AVIATION...Cousins HYDROLOGY...Gross