285
FXUS63 KDVN 300737
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
237 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet, low humidity weather through the short term as
  precipitation approaches the area late.

- Active weather continues through the long term with daily
  chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Upper level ridging will keep the area quiet as high pressure
is in place at the surface. Later in the period, the ridge
starts to shift south as the first shortwave in a busy weekend
its quick to enter the area. Before this, high pressure will
continue to bring in drier air from the east leading to another
pleasant day across the area. Highs in the 70s with low humidity
is expected. Later in the period, high level clouds move into
the area and help to keep lows tonight 3 to 6 degrees warmer
than this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

There is run to run variability within the different models as well
as some differences between individual models through the period.
They are in vary good agreement on an active west to east zonal flow
through the period with several shortwave troughs and ridging moving
across the area through next week. This will result in several
chances of showers and storms timed roughly every 24 hours through
the period. There is a stronger shortwave arriving Tuesday into
Wednesday with the ECWMF solution faster than the GFS at this time.

Friday into Saturday, ridging that has brought pleasant weather to
the area in the short term will have moved to the east of the area.
A shortwave to our southwest will approach the area on Friday. THe
ECWMF is the most aggressive model having precipitation moving into
southeast Iowa Friday morning and continuing through the day while
the other models delay it to the arrival of stronger forcing Friday
night into Saturday morning. How far north any shower and
thunderstorm activity spreads Friday night will be dependent how far
north the surface low and warm front tracks into Missouri with the
GFS the farthest south solution keeping the bulk of precipitation
south of Interstate 80. The NBM continues to have low pops spreading
from west to east through the day on Friday accounting for model
differences.

High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be in the mid to upper
70s before warming into the lower to mid 80s Sunday through
Wednesday. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s Friday
night and Saturday night then warming to 60 to 65 degrees Sunday
night through Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period as light winds
and high clouds are the main weather story. No sig wx impacts to
aviation expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1017 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

No changes with the new forecasts this morning on area rivers.

The Wapsipinicon River at Anamosa will continue to rise to just
under Moderate flood by Thursday morning. The Wapsipinicon River near
De Witt continues to rise and is expected to have a double
crest in Major flood over the next 5 days due to routed flow
upstream. The crest of 13.3 feet will be the highest the river
has been since June 2020.

The lower portions of the Iowa River is cresting or will be near
crest today. The Skunk River at Augusta will continue to rise
to 14.4 feet Thursday evening which is below flood stage.

On the mainstem Mississippi, the river is expected to rise into
Minor flood from New Boston LD 17 downstream to Burlington and
also at Gregory Landing.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Gibbs
HYDROLOGY...Gross