208
FNUS21 KWNS 031518
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Valid 031700Z - 041200Z

The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
needed based on latest surface observations and trends in high-res
guidance. Confidence remains reasonably high in the emergence of
elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon across portions of
AZ into southern NM and far west TX between the 20-01 UTC period.
South-central NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX should
see the longest duration of 15+ mph winds with 5-15% RH where deeper
boundary-layer mixing should favor frequent gusts between 20-25 mph.
See the previous discussion below for additional details.

..Moore.. 06/03/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/

...Synopsis...
Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest
and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the
Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where
receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected.

...New Mexico and far West TX...
Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level
flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around
10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this
afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and
temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely
support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within
receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and
stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across
far west TX.

A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also
extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be
more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have
allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours
of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated
fire-weather risk.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$