Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
597 FNUS21 KWNS 021647 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z The ongoing forecast is largely on track. The only change was to expand the elevated area to the southwest where elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon. Please see the previous forecast discussion below for additional meteorological reasoning. Elsewhere, elevated-to-critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of east and northeast New Mexico. However, recent rains should limit fuel receptiveness, precluding the need for elevated or critical delineation. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the western and central US today. A shortwave trough over the Four Concerns will move eastward with enhanced westerly flow likely over the Southwest. Dry and breezy surface conditions are expected this afternoon supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Desert Southwest into Southwest TX... Low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest ahead of a shortwave trough moving over the Four Corners. A lee low and trailing dryline will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits will continue supporting dry fuels outside of recent rainfall. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph for a few hours this afternoon. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and confined. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$