Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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359 ACUS01 KWNS 221948 SWODY1 SPC AC 221946 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Convection across West Texas into central Oklahoma continues to intensify per GOES IR imagery with further intensification probable through late afternoon. In general, the Texas Low Rolling Plains and portions of Ozarks remain relatively more favorable for organized severe convection due to better diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE has increased to 1500-2000 J/kg) along and ahead of the front, but instances of sporadic hail/damaging gusts remain possible across northwest TX into OK. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. $$